Avi Melamed.

Tag: Turkey

A Turkish Message on the Syrian Border

The flag of the Syrian rebellion was raised today at the Turkish-Syrian border at Bab al-Hawa Border Crossing. The raising of the flag of the Rebellion was likely coordinated with Turkey. Turkey’s acquiescence sends a number of signals to a number of players on a variety of issues including: One – the northern part of Syria is an area of…

Tasting the Bitter Pill of Reality: Hamas’ New Political Pact

June 17th, 2017 Tasting the Bitter Pill of Reality: Hamas’ New Political Pact Information In August 2014 I published an article entitled “Operation Protective Edge: Exiting to a New Space” in which  I analyzed the ramifications of the summer of 2014 war between Hamas and Israel. In that piece I wrote ”…As a result, Hamas enters a long process where…

A Prediction Materialized: Iranian Proxy Vows to “Fight to Liberate the Golan Heights”

Inside the Middle East – Intelligence Perspectives Intelligence Bulletin     March 14, 2017   A Prediction Materialized: Iranian Proxy Vows to “Fight to liberate the Golan Heights”   Information: In my January 2017 article “A Growing Whirlpool of Violence: The Middle East Legacy of Barack Obama “ I made the following prediction regarding the growing direct and indirect Iranian…

Avi Melamed on I24 News The Lineup

August 30, 2016   Avi Melamed on I24 News Lineup with Nurit Zunger talking about the WAR IN SYRIA Nurit Zunger interviewing Avi Melamed

The Politics of Pragmatism – Jabhat Al-Nusrah Disembarking from Al-Qaeda

August 23rd, 2016 Jabhat Al-Nusrah Disembarking from Al-Qaeda by Avi Melamed Background: Jabhat al-Nusrah li-Ahl al-Sham (The Front for the Support of the People of Sham) is Al-Qaeda’s branch in Syria. Like Al-Qaeda, Jabhat Al-Nusrah is a Sunni Salafi-Jihadist organization. The word “Salaf” means the past of something, its origin, its roots, its primal source. The origins of Salafi thought are deep in the sands of…

Do the Syrian Rebels in the Golan Heights have Surface-to-Surface Missiles?

  July 24th, 2016 Intelligence Bulletin Do the Syrian Rebels in the Golan Heights have Surface-to-Surface Missiles? Background: Similar to other areas in Syria, the Syrian District of Quneitra, which borders the Israeli part of the Golan Heights is a stage for ongoing clashes, of varying levels of intensity and frequency, between different Syrian Rebel groups on the one side,…

Failed Military Coup in Turkey: President Recep & Mr. Erdoğan

I am REPOSTING THIS POST IN LIGHT OF A MISTAKE IN THE PREVIOUS TITLE July 20, 2016 by Avi Melamed A military coup in Turkey (July 15-16, 2016) was oppressed and failed. Though crushed, the attempted coup, which was apparently led by some factors within the Turkish army, indicates the deep and dangerous crisis which Turkey is experiencing that stems from…

Failed Military Coup in Turkey:  President Recep & Mr. Erdoğan

PLEASE NOTE I EDITED THIS POST DUE TO AN ERROR IN THE TITLE July 20, 2016 by Avi Melamed A military coup in Turkey (July 15-16, 2016) was oppressed and failed. Though crushed, the attempted coup, which was apparently led by some factors within the Turkish army, indicates the deep and dangerous crisis which Turkey is experiencing that stems from serious…

The Coalition of The Willing

Published in The Cipherbrief,  February 2016 by Avi Melamed   The collapse or weakening of state authority in different parts of the Middle East and Africa, together with growing inner challenges and chronic instability in large parts of the region and the widening and escalating Iranian-Arab power struggle, creates a chaotic environment militant Islamic groups exploit to expand their activities…

Vienna, Aden, Damascus

July 23rd, 2015 Vienna, Aden, Damascus By Avi Melamed The signing of the Vienna agreement on July 14, 2015 between Iran and the “Five Plus One” states, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom United States, plus Germany regarding the Iranian nuclear program was not surprising. The Mullah regime desperately needed an agreement and the United States President, Barrack Obama wanted – critics of the agreement add that he desperately wanted – an agreement. Some argue it is a bad deal, others argue it is a good deal; some see both positive as well as negative aspects of the agreement. There should have, and could have, been a much better agreement. The West had a much stronger hand than the Iranians.…

https://www.avimelamed.com/2015/03/21/pax-amer-iran/

Pax Amer-Iran

March 20, 2015 Pax Amer – Iran by Avi Melamed At the peak of its power and influence, the United States’ foreign policy was described as Pax Americana. That description was inspired by the term Pax Romana –”The Roman Peace” – the term that describes the period of time between 27 BC and 180 AD known as the “Golden Era”…

Muslim Brotherhood at the Crossroads

December 6, 2014 by Avi Melamed The Middle East continues to constantly provide dramatic events in different areas – in Syria, Yemen, Egypt, Iraq and other places. However, I would like to divert your attention for a while from the dramatic events in those arenas and take a pause to explore some very interesting processes taking place for a significant player in the region – The Muslim Brotherhood movement. Following the outbreak of events in the Arab world known as the Arab Awakening, the Muslim Brotherhood has succeeded in attaining their primary political goal in two Arab countries. In the elections held in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood won by an overwhelming majority in the Egyptian parliament, and its candidate Mohamed…

Hamas Breathes a Sigh of Relief

August 3, 2014 Hamas Breathes a Sigh of Relief   by Avi Melamed The next line will probably astonish many people. When Israel formally announced that the IDF kidnapped Officer, Hadar Goldin, was pronounced dead – Hamas breathed a sigh of relief. This sentence seems totally crazy; it doesn’t make any sense. After all, Hamas’ strategic objective was, and is, to abduct an Israeli – preferably a soldier – that will be a bargaining chip for the release of Palestinians imprisoned in Israel. Hamas wishes to recreate the case of Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier who was abducted and held in captivity by Hamas for more than 5 years (2006-2011) who was released in exchange for more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners.…

Bewildering American Move – Operation Protective Edge

Why was US Secretary of State John Kerry’s latest cease fire proposal rejected by Egypt, Israel, the Palestinian Authority and Saudi Arabia? Another misstep on the part of the US Administration stemming from a misreading of the Middle Eastern Map, results in the US government scrambling to do damage control. As the Middle East goes through increasing turbulence, stemming from the enormous challenges the region is confronting, it is critical that the West, especially the United States, understand how to foster and cultivate stability in the face of those that are determined to foment instability.   Avi Melamed, former Israeli Senior Official on Arab Affairs and former Intelligence Official and educator, is today an Independent Middle East Strategic Intelligence Analyst,…

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