Avi Melamed.

Tag: Shi’ite

Intelligence Report: Harakat as-Sabeeren Nasran li-Filastin in the Gaza Strip

July 1st, 2016 by Avi Melamed General Background: The Islamic Jihad Movement in Palestine, Harakat al-Jihād al-Islāmi fi Filastīn, most widely known as the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) is a Sunni Islamic group, established in the late 1970’s. The PIJ is a Palestinian organization inspired by Jihadi Islamist Militant ideology. The goal of Jihadi Islamist Militant ideology is to create,…

Vienna, Aden, Damascus

July 23rd, 2015 Vienna, Aden, Damascus By Avi Melamed The signing of the Vienna agreement on July 14, 2015 between Iran and the “Five Plus One” states, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom United States, plus Germany regarding the Iranian nuclear program was not surprising. The Mullah regime desperately needed an agreement and the United States President, Barrack Obama wanted – critics of the agreement add that he desperately wanted – an agreement. Some argue it is a bad deal, others argue it is a good deal; some see both positive as well as negative aspects of the agreement. There should have, and could have, been a much better agreement. The West had a much stronger hand than the Iranians.…

https://www.avimelamed.com/2015/03/21/pax-amer-iran/

Pax Amer-Iran

March 20, 2015 Pax Amer – Iran by Avi Melamed At the peak of its power and influence, the United States’ foreign policy was described as Pax Americana. That description was inspired by the term Pax Romana –”The Roman Peace” – the term that describes the period of time between 27 BC and 180 AD known as the “Golden Era”…

The War in Syria – A Mutual Chokehold

May 7, 2014   The War in Syria – A Mutual Chokehold By Avi Melamed Pay attention to the Syrian town of Tfail. Tfail is a Lebanese enclave located in the Al-Kalmun mountain range in Syria about a mile away from the Lebanese border. It is a town of about 5,000 people – all Lebanese citizens (though the town is located inside Syria) – the majority of whom are Sunnis. Reportedly, following the recent battles in the region, dozens of thousands of Syrians fleeing the war in Syria found refuge on the outskirts of Tfail. Hezbollah argues that these refugees are not civilians, but rather Syrian rebels who fled following the recent fighting in the area of the Al-Kalmun. Reportedly,…

Navigating the Iraqi Labyrinth

March 2, 2014 Navigating the Iraqi Labyrinth by Avi Melamed The Al-Anbar Province is the western part of Iraq. It begins in Bagdad and its borders are Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Area-wise it is the largest province in Iraq with a total population of about 2 million people – mostly Sunni, whose society is based upon large tribes. Clashes have been taking place in Al-Anbar since December 2013. The combat is mostly taking place in the district’s two major cities – Al-Ramadi, 70 miles southwest of Bagdad and Al-Fallujah, 40 miles southwest of Bagdad. In addition, sporadic fighting is also taking place in the area of the Al-Khalidiya Peninsula located in central Iraq, as well as on the northern…

Secret of the Spinning Wheels

November 12, 2013 The Secret of the Spinning Wheels The Middle East is a complex structure of wheels which spin one another. Normally, a small wheel spins a bigger one.  In the Middle East however, sometimes it is the opposite. Sometimes a big wheel spins a smaller one. The following story demonstrates that well. The story begins in May 2012 when a group of eleven Lebanese Shiites described as “Pilgrims” were kidnapped in Syria on their way back to Lebanon from Iran. According to accumulating information evaluated as reliable, among the kidnapped were senior military and political activists of Hezbollah (read more about that incident in my article “Nasrallah Gets a Taste of his own Bitter Medicine” published on June…

On The Edge of The Cliff

******* Intelligence Bulletin Information Date:     August 23, 2013 Event Date:     August 23, 2013 Information Item:     Lethal Attacks on Sunni Mosques in Northern Lebanon Information Platform:     Various Source:     Varied Source Reliability:     Confirmed Spring:     Varied Spring Reliability:     Reliable Relevant Information:     Two explosions occurred on Friday, August 23 in the city of Tripoli, the largest city in the northern part of Lebanon. The targets of the attacks were two major Sunni mosques. As of now, 45 people are reported dead and more that 500 injured. So far no one has claimed responsibility for the attacks. The city of Tripoli, with a population of some half a million people is predominately Sunni. There is, however, a group of Alawites who reside in one of…

Clashes in Sidon Intelligence Bulletin

******* Intelligence Bulletin Information Date:     June 23 2013 Event Date:     June 23 2013 Information Item:     Clashes in Sidon, Lebanon Information Platform:     Various Source:     Varied Source Reliability:     Reliable Spring:     Local Sources in Sidon Spring Reliability:     Reliable Information Validity:     Confirmed Relevant Information:     On June 18 armed clashes broke out in the area of Abra in the city of Sidon – the biggest city in southern Lebanon. Reportedly, the factors involved in the fighting are supporters of Sunni Preacher Sheikh Ahmed Al-Assir on the one hand, and militants affiliated with the Lebanese Shiite organization, Hezbollah, on the other hand. Sheikh Ahmed Al-Assir is a Sunni preacher known for his tough line criticizing Hezbollah. Following the involvement of Hezbollah in the war in Syria,…

The Alliance of Fear in Lebanon

June 6, 2013 by Avi Melamed As the war in Syria percolates into Lebanon and Iraq, turning into a massive Sunni-Shiite collision, it is worthwhile to take a close look at another factor in Lebanon – The Palestinians. Some half a million Palestinians (who are all Sunni) live in Lebanon. They live in large refugee camps scattered throughout most of Lebanon. The biggest one is Ain Al-Hilweh, located next to the city of Sidon, the biggest city in southern Lebanon, which is also predominately Sunni. Other large camps are located in the vicinity of Beirut as well as in the area surrounding Tripoli, the biggest city in northern Lebanon, which similar to Sidon, is also predominately Sunni. The scenario of…

The Spider Caught in its Own Web

May 31, 2013 by Avi Melamed Since late 2011, I have been outlining a scenario in which Hezbollah in Lebanon would find itself in a violent confrontation with a Sunni Syrian-Lebanese crescent (links to articles on the subject are at the bottom). These very days – right in front of our eyes – it is happening… On Sunday May 26 three rockets were fired at Al Dahya Al Janobiya in the southern quarter of Beirut – the capital of Lebanon. As many of you may remember from my article Inside Hezbollah’s Private Dominion (February 2012), Al Dahya Al Janobiya is the major stronghold of Hezbollah in Lebanon. The attack on Hezbollah’s stronghold is not a surprise. Syrian rebels and Lebanese…

The Syrian Stalingrad

******* Intelligence Bulletin Information Date:     May 22 2013 Event Date:     Now and Ongoing Information Item:     The Syrian Stalingrad Information Platform:     Various Source:     Varied Source Reliability:     Reliable Information Validity:     Valid Relevant Information:     In October 2012 I wrote an article entitled “Pay Attention to the Battle over Al-Qusayr in Syria” in this article I explained the strategic importance of the city of Al-Qusayr and the surrounding area. These very days, after months of fierce fighting over the city and its outskirts, Assad’s troops, together with Hezbollah, Iranian soldiers and Iraqi Shiite militants are launching a massive attack on Al-Qusayr. They are indiscriminately bombing the city with rockets and…

Intelligence Bulletin March 12, 2013 Clashes in Ain al-Hilweh, a Palestinian Refugee Camp in South Lebanon

******* Intelligence Bulletin March 12, 2013 Information Date: March 12, 2013 Event Date: March 11, 2013 Information Item: Clashes in Ain al-Hilweh, a Palestinian Refugee Camp in South Lebanon. Information Details: According to my sources clashes broke out during the night of March 11 and continued into the next day in a neighborhood called Ras al-Ahmar in the Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp. Reportedly, the clashes were a result of an attempted assassination of a senior leader of the Sunni Jihadist militant group known as Fatah al-Islam. The clashes resulted in a few injuries. Source: Media Platform, Neutral Sources, Others Source Reliability: Reliable Information Validity: Valid Relevant information: One person injured in the clashes – the apparent target of the assassination attempt – is identified as…

Did A Senior Hezbollah Commander Escape an Assassination Plot?

February 7, 2013  By Avi Melamed According to unconfirmed information, from a source I evaluate as fairly reliable, Wafiq Safa, the head of the “Central Liaison and Cooperation Committee” of Hezbollah in Lebanon, was injured at the beginning of the month in an explosion in the Sulm neighborhood in Beirut. It is not clear if it was an assassination plot, but there are reasons to affirm the suspicions. Safa, born in 1960 in the town of Zibdin in South Lebanon, is the brother-in-law of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah. For years he was Hezbollah’s “man in the shadows” – his name was “The Ghost.” He is considered to be a member of the most powerful inner-circle within the organization.…

Pay Attention to the Battle over Al-Qusayr in Syria

October 25, 2012 by Avi Melamed Accumulating reports indicate expanding Hezbollah military activity inside Syria – specifically west of the Syrian city of Al-Qusayr. The Syrian city of Al-Qusayr is located in a strategic position – eight miles east of the Syrian-Lebanese “border” (an actual border line was never marked on the ground) and ten miles west of the major Syrian city Homs and the Homs-Damascus highway. Al-Qusayr is the gateway to Lebanon – roads connect Al-Qusayr and the northern part of the Lebanese valley. The area surrounding Al-Qusayr is mostly rural – made up of small to mid-size towns and villages.  Farms are scattered along the sides of the Orontes River that runs from the northern Lebanese Valley into…

AVI'S NEW BOOK

"Inside the Middle East:
Making Sense of the Most Dangerous and Complicated Place on Earth"

Scroll down to learn more

Newsletter X

Join my mailing list to be the first to know about my appearances, events and lecture tours!

Join my mailing list to receive my Intel Briefs straight to your inbox!