Avi Melamed.

Tag: Saudi Arabia

Muslim Brotherhood at the Crossroads

December 6, 2014 by Avi Melamed The Middle East continues to constantly provide dramatic events in different areas – in Syria, Yemen, Egypt, Iraq and other places. However, I would like to divert your attention for a while from the dramatic events in those arenas and take a pause to explore some very interesting processes taking place for a significant player in the region – The Muslim Brotherhood movement. Following the outbreak of events in the Arab world known as the Arab Awakening, the Muslim Brotherhood has succeeded in attaining their primary political goal in two Arab countries. In the elections held in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood won by an overwhelming majority in the Egyptian parliament, and its candidate Mohamed…

Bewildering American Move – Operation Protective Edge

Why was US Secretary of State John Kerry’s latest cease fire proposal rejected by Egypt, Israel, the Palestinian Authority and Saudi Arabia? Another misstep on the part of the US Administration stemming from a misreading of the Middle Eastern Map, results in the US government scrambling to do damage control. As the Middle East goes through increasing turbulence, stemming from the enormous challenges the region is confronting, it is critical that the West, especially the United States, understand how to foster and cultivate stability in the face of those that are determined to foment instability.   Avi Melamed, former Israeli Senior Official on Arab Affairs and former Intelligence Official and educator, is today an Independent Middle East Strategic Intelligence Analyst,…

The War in Syria – A Mutual Chokehold

May 7, 2014   The War in Syria – A Mutual Chokehold By Avi Melamed Pay attention to the Syrian town of Tfail. Tfail is a Lebanese enclave located in the Al-Kalmun mountain range in Syria about a mile away from the Lebanese border. It is a town of about 5,000 people – all Lebanese citizens (though the town is located inside Syria) – the majority of whom are Sunnis. Reportedly, following the recent battles in the region, dozens of thousands of Syrians fleeing the war in Syria found refuge on the outskirts of Tfail. Hezbollah argues that these refugees are not civilians, but rather Syrian rebels who fled following the recent fighting in the area of the Al-Kalmun. Reportedly,…

Soldier on the Chessboard

January 9, 2014  by Avi Melamed Lebanese authorities announced that Majid Al-Majid (his full name is Majid bin Muhammad Majid al-Qahtani), the leader of the Abdullah Azzam Brigade Jihadist group and the top Al-Qaeda commander in Lebanon – died after being arrested. The Abdullah Azzam Brigade is a Sunni Islamic militant group affiliated with the Global Jihad movement and Al-Qaeda with cells in countries throughout the Arab world. It was created in 2009 by a Saudi militant named Saleh bin Abdullah Al-Qar’awi AKA Al-Seif Al-Bater (“The Cutting Sword”). In Saudi Arabia they operate under the name of The Companies of Yusuf al ‘Uyayri (or Al-Ubeiri), named after an Al-Qaeda senior leader who was killed in Saudi Arabia in 2003. The…

One Move on the Chess Board

November 26, 2013 By Avi Melamed The Iranian regime has very good reasons to be satisfied with the interim agreement signed recently in Geneva: The Iranian regime played their cards right. The Iranians came to the table under immense stress due to the growing economic crisis stemming from the Western imposed sanctions. The Western powers – for some reason – failed to take advantage of the Iranian regime’s stress which could have secured a much better deal for the West. The interim agreement positions the Iranian regime as a regional – if not global – power which cannot be ignored. The agreement substantially limits Israel’s ability to launch any kind of military strike – a scenario that disturbed the Iranian…

Where is the Leader of Jabhat Al-Nusrah in Syria? INTELLIGENCE BULETIN

******* Intelligence Bulletin Information Date:                October 26, 2013 Event Date:                            October 25, 2013 Information Item:                 Leader of Jabhat Al- Nusrah killed in Syria? Information Platform:         Varied Source:                                    Vary Source Reliability:                 Unknown Spring:                                     Syrian National TV Network Spring Reliability:                  Unknown Information Validity:            Unconfirmed Relevant Information:         The Syrian TV News network (SANA) associated with the Assad regime, reported that Abu Muhammad Al-Joulani, the leader of the Jabhat Al-Nusra organization, which is affiliated with Al-Qaeda in Syria, was killed on October 25, 2013. Jabhat Al-Nusra rushed to deny the report, announcing that Al-Joulani, as well as Abu Anas Al-Sahabh, another senior leader of the organization, were safe and sound. It should be mentioned that the news item was removed from SANA’s website shortly after it was published. It also…

Where is Egypt Heading?

July 14, 2013 by Avi Melamed In November 2011 I published an article entitled “The Arab Awakening: An Era of New Slogans” in which I focused on the Muslim Brotherhood movement (MB) in Egypt and the challenges it was facing now that Mubarak was gone and that their entry as a major player on the Egyptian political stage looked certain. In that article I wrote about the fact that during the political campaign, the MB political party eschewed the slogan used by the MB since their inception – “Islam is the solution” and replaced it with “We Will Do for Egypt’s Welfare.” I explained that the rationale behind that decision was that the movement understood that its historical slogan had…

Operation Pillar of Defense: Geopolitical Ramifications Part 2

November 29, 2012 Operation Pillar of Defense: Geopolitical Ramifications – Part 2 Hamas’ Cruel Dilemma In my previous article Operation Pillar of Defense: Geopolitical Ramifications – Part 1 , Rocket Attacks on Israel: Sirens in Israeli Cities Must Echo in the West I described the militant axis nurtured and operated by the Iranian regime known as “the axis of Resistance.”  I outlined the way Hamas has been dragged – in the latest round and in previous instances – by other Palestinian terror organizations in the Gaza Strip into escalating their attacks on Israeli targets.  I also gave an overview of the process of growing tensions between Hamas and other groups in the Gaza Strip and the ramifications of that process…

The King of Bahrain to visit the Gaza Strip This Week?

October 29, 2012 by Avi Melamed According to reports in the Arab media – which have been denied by official Bahraini spokesmen – the King of Bahrain will visit the Gaza Strip by the end of this week. Such a visit, should it take place, would be another indication of the Gulf States willingness to reward Hamas following its detachment from the Iranian-Syrian axis. A visit by the King of Bahrain, following last week’s visit of the Emir of Qatar to the Gaza Strip is a clear sign of support of the Gulf monarchies for the pragmatic wing of Hamas. The visit is also a signal from Saudi Arabia.  Qatar’s tendency to conduct independent foreign policy and to promote its…

A Disturbing Scenario in the Golan Heights

September 20, 2012 by Avi Melamed Firas Al Absi, also known as, Abu Mohammad Al Shammi, reportedly the leader of Jihadist group called Majlis Shurah Al Dawla Al Islamiya in Syria, was apparently kidnapped and assassinated.  His body was found few days ago near by the Syrian – Turkish border passage of Bab Al Hawa. Alabsi was 40 years old, a dentist by profession, the son of a Syrian family from the area of Aleppo, but grew up in Saudi Arabia. As a young man he joined Al Qaida in Afghanistan.  Upon his return to Saudi Arabia he was arrested and imprisoned for one year and was then expelled forever.  He lived in Sudan for seven years and went back…

The Sinai Peninsula: A Growing Strategic Threat

August 30, 2012 by Avi Melamed According to a one senior Egyptian analyst, the Rafah terror attack was planned over the course of three months by six  Jihadist and Takfir groups. One of the groups also involved, according to one senior Egyptian official, was a Palestinian terror group based in the Gaza Strip named Jeish Al Islam (Islam’s Army). The groups involved in the attack are not part of Al-Qaida.  However, they are inspired by its ideology.  Al-Qaida has announced the establishment of an Islamic Emirate in the Sinai Peninsula and as far back as December 20, 2011, Al-Qaida announced the presence of its military wing in the Sinai Peninsula, called Ansar Al Jihad. Some of the militants that perpetrated…

Egypt’s New Foreign Policy

July 30, 2012 February 3, 2012 Avi publishes an article Is the Israel Egypt Peace Treaty in Jeopardy?  in which he accurately foresees the foreign policy of Egypt’s new rule. Here is an excerpt from the article: “… the current Saudi-Egyptian alliance is crucial for Egypt…and Egypt is keenly aware of its dependence on Saudi support…the Saudis expect Egypt to restore their sovereignty in the Sinai Peninsula – the sooner the better – and to avoid events that could endanger the Saudi’s interests  …Egypt’s dependence on the support of the international community, and mostly the US, is deepening  …some African states are demanding that the agreement concerning the split of the water from Nile River be revised in a way…

Is War in the Middle East Inevitable?

February 25, 2012 by Avi Melamed The Iranian nuclear military program and the possibility of a massive military collision in the Middle East are clearly occupying the world’s attention. These concerns are not groundless.  However, is military confrontation inevitable? In this article, I would like to bring your attention to the fact that at this specific moment, due to the…

Black is White, Up is Down: Master of distortion

February 5, 2012 by Avi Melamed Mr. Abdel Bari Atwan is the Chief Editor of a very popular London based, Arab newspaper, Al-Quds Al-Arabi. Mr. Atwan, who lives In the UK, is a very welcome guest on British television, Al Jazeera and other media channels. I recently saw him on a Middle East panel hosted by one of the British TV channels and I was struck by the fact that neither the host nor the other participants found it appropriate to ask Mr. Atwan some tough questions regarding his outspoken opinions. For example, they could have asked Mr. Atwan to explain the way he described Osama Bin Laden in articles he published following the killing of Bin Laden. Here is…

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