Avi Melamed.

Tag: Muslim Brotherhood

Muslim Brotherhood at the Crossroads

December 6, 2014 by Avi Melamed The Middle East continues to constantly provide dramatic events in different areas – in Syria, Yemen, Egypt, Iraq and other places. However, I would like to divert your attention for a while from the dramatic events in those arenas and take a pause to explore some very interesting processes taking place for a significant player in the region – The Muslim Brotherhood movement. Following the outbreak of events in the Arab world known as the Arab Awakening, the Muslim Brotherhood has succeeded in attaining their primary political goal in two Arab countries. In the elections held in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood won by an overwhelming majority in the Egyptian parliament, and its candidate Mohamed…

Bewildering American Move – Operation Protective Edge

Why was US Secretary of State John Kerry’s latest cease fire proposal rejected by Egypt, Israel, the Palestinian Authority and Saudi Arabia? Another misstep on the part of the US Administration stemming from a misreading of the Middle Eastern Map, results in the US government scrambling to do damage control. As the Middle East goes through increasing turbulence, stemming from the enormous challenges the region is confronting, it is critical that the West, especially the United States, understand how to foster and cultivate stability in the face of those that are determined to foment instability.   Avi Melamed, former Israeli Senior Official on Arab Affairs and former Intelligence Official and educator, is today an Independent Middle East Strategic Intelligence Analyst,…

Muqawama, Money, Missiles

July 15, 2014 Muqawama, Money, Missiles By Avi Melamed The current round of violence between Israel and Hamas is caused by the simplest reason imaginable, yet very few are aware of it. MONEY. Let’s start with a clarification. Today, the real boss in the Gaza Strip, is a massively armed military force of about ten to fifteen thousand Palestinians known as the Ezzedeen Al-Qassam Brigades. Ezzedeen Al-Qassam is often presented as the military wing of Hamas – the rulers of the Gaza Strip. However, that definition should be revised to more accurately reflect the current reality. Today, the militia – the Ezzedeen Al-Qassam Brigades, who rule the Gaza Strip – have a political wing, named Hamas. It is the Ezzedeen…

The War in Syria – A Mutual Chokehold

May 7, 2014   The War in Syria – A Mutual Chokehold By Avi Melamed Pay attention to the Syrian town of Tfail. Tfail is a Lebanese enclave located in the Al-Kalmun mountain range in Syria about a mile away from the Lebanese border. It is a town of about 5,000 people – all Lebanese citizens (though the town is located inside Syria) – the majority of whom are Sunnis. Reportedly, following the recent battles in the region, dozens of thousands of Syrians fleeing the war in Syria found refuge on the outskirts of Tfail. Hezbollah argues that these refugees are not civilians, but rather Syrian rebels who fled following the recent fighting in the area of the Al-Kalmun. Reportedly,…

Where is Egypt Heading?

July 14, 2013 by Avi Melamed In November 2011 I published an article entitled “The Arab Awakening: An Era of New Slogans” in which I focused on the Muslim Brotherhood movement (MB) in Egypt and the challenges it was facing now that Mubarak was gone and that their entry as a major player on the Egyptian political stage looked certain. In that article I wrote about the fact that during the political campaign, the MB political party eschewed the slogan used by the MB since their inception – “Islam is the solution” and replaced it with “We Will Do for Egypt’s Welfare.” I explained that the rationale behind that decision was that the movement understood that its historical slogan had…

Wikistrat Next Generation Strategy Ask a Sr. Analyst Exercise

Ask A Senior Analyst – Mr. Avi Melamed   Mr. Avi Melamed Editor’s Note: Wikistrat’s Facebook followers recently engaged in a 24-hour exclusive Q&A drill with one of Wikistrat’s Senior Analysts – Mr. Avi Melamed. Mr. Avi Melamed, former Israeli Senior Official on Arab Affairs and is an independent Middle East Strategic Intelligence Analyst and lecturer specialized in the current affairs of the Arab and Muslim world, as well as their impact on Israel and the region more widely. Mr. Melamed provides intelligence analysis, briefings and tours to diplomats, Israeli and foreign policy makers, international media outlets and a wide variety of organizations as well as private clients on a range of Israeli and Middle Eastern affairs. Miguel Nunes Silva: …

Operation Pillar of Defense: Geopolitical Ramifications Part 2

November 29, 2012 Operation Pillar of Defense: Geopolitical Ramifications – Part 2 Hamas’ Cruel Dilemma In my previous article Operation Pillar of Defense: Geopolitical Ramifications – Part 1 , Rocket Attacks on Israel: Sirens in Israeli Cities Must Echo in the West I described the militant axis nurtured and operated by the Iranian regime known as “the axis of Resistance.”  I outlined the way Hamas has been dragged – in the latest round and in previous instances – by other Palestinian terror organizations in the Gaza Strip into escalating their attacks on Israeli targets.  I also gave an overview of the process of growing tensions between Hamas and other groups in the Gaza Strip and the ramifications of that process…

The Muslim Brotherhood Belly Dancing

September 22, 2012 November 8, 2011 Avi Melamed writes an article The Arab Awakening: An Era of New Slogans  “…The Arab world is in flux and the Muslim Brotherhood movement in Egypt, is now in unfamiliar territory – they are finally in the driver’s seat.   Therefore, they will have to bridge the gaps between their ideology and the need for pragmatism…I think it is quite reasonable to assume that the policy of the Muslim Brotherhood will be characterized by a permanent inner-tension that stems from their need to bridge their rigid ideology and their need for pragmatism.  And it is likely that this tension will create turbulence that will inevitably impact the region.”  September 22, 2012 an article published in L.A…

The Earth Moves Beneath the Throne

September 5, 2012 by Avi Melamed The Hashemite kingdom of Jordan is experiencing growing unrest. Jordan is grappling with many challenges – just some of which are:  a growing external debt; an unbalanced budget which is threatening to bankrupt the country’s fragile economy; a high unemployment rate; growing inflation; a severe shortage of fresh water; constant electric blackouts and brownouts; a disintegration of public order; and growing feelings of insecurity among the population. At the same time, Jordanians are also focused on two additional issues:  the exposure of what seems to be deep corruption among politicians, civil servants and people who are part of the monarchy’s inner circle – specifically the Queen; and the perennial, yet sharply escalating debate, between…

The Sinai Peninsula: A Growing Strategic Threat

August 30, 2012 by Avi Melamed According to a one senior Egyptian analyst, the Rafah terror attack was planned over the course of three months by six  Jihadist and Takfir groups. One of the groups also involved, according to one senior Egyptian official, was a Palestinian terror group based in the Gaza Strip named Jeish Al Islam (Islam’s Army). The groups involved in the attack are not part of Al-Qaida.  However, they are inspired by its ideology.  Al-Qaida has announced the establishment of an Islamic Emirate in the Sinai Peninsula and as far back as December 20, 2011, Al-Qaida announced the presence of its military wing in the Sinai Peninsula, called Ansar Al Jihad. Some of the militants that perpetrated…

Egypt’s Game – “Good Cop, Bad Cop” ?

                August 22, 2012 by Avi Melamed   It seems as if Egypt is practicing a somewhat schizophrenic policy in the domestic and foreign arena.   On the one hand, senior leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood movement in Egypt officially express a hard line which reflects the movement’s intolerant ideology regarding various social and political issues including: the rights of minorities, women’s rights, liberalism, civil rights, relations with Israel, etc. On the other hand, Muhammad Morsi, the President of Egypt, who ran for president as the candidate of the “Freedom and Justice Party” – the political party of the Muslim Brotherhood movement in Egypt – advocates for a moderate and tolerant policy on the exact same topics.   So, the Muslim…

Is War in the Middle East Inevitable?

February 25, 2012 by Avi Melamed The Iranian nuclear military program and the possibility of a massive military collision in the Middle East are clearly occupying the world’s attention. These concerns are not groundless.  However, is military confrontation inevitable? In this article, I would like to bring your attention to the fact that at this specific moment, due to the…

The Arab Awakening: An Era of New Slogans

November 8, 2011 by Avi Melamed In my video and accompanying article on the “The Arab Awakening” (published last month), I presented my thoughts regarding the recent events in the Arab world, labeled by many, as “The Arab Spring.” One of my observations was that these events marked the beginning of an era of new slogans in the Arab world and a departure from the old ones. One of the slogans I discussed was “Islam is the Solution” – the motto of the Muslim Brotherhood movement since its establishment in Egypt in the late 1920’s.  You can see this phrase written on walls, printed on bumper stickers and plastered on street signs all over the Arab world. Following the downfall of the…

Gilad Shalit Released

May 30, 2011 Avi is interviewed about the Israeli abducted soldier, Gilad Shalit. Here is what Avi said in an interview published at Euobserver.com : “I am cautiously optimistic.  Today Hamas has to refigure its situation in the newly-shaped region. It is enjoying a warming-up of relations with Egypt and the support of the Muslim Brotherhood. But these actors may need Hamas to become more flexible so that they can gain face with the West…Post-revolutionary Egypt – which is a mediator in the Shalit talks – is likely to put pressure on Hamas to free the 24-year-old soldier in order to gain credibility for itself with the EU and US.”  October 18, 2011 Gilad Shalit was released.

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