Avi Melamed.

Tag: Middle East

Avi Melamed US Lecture Tour Spring 2014

A New Middle East Requires a New Understanding. Events of an historic scale are rocking the Middle East. I have spent many years of my life in the streets of the Arab world.  I have watched the Arab Awakening evolve and erupt from the inside. The Middle East in changing before our very eyes, the landscape is shifting and changing every day, and can drastically change any minute now. My upcoming US lecture tour will help you understand the present and navigate the future. Egypt, the biggest and most important Arab State, is embroiled a fierce battle over its identity. Iraq, Libya, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen are disintegrating in a bloody and violent process. Lebanon, once known as the Paris…

Secret of the Spinning Wheels

November 12, 2013 The Secret of the Spinning Wheels The Middle East is a complex structure of wheels which spin one another. Normally, a small wheel spins a bigger one.  In the Middle East however, sometimes it is the opposite. Sometimes a big wheel spins a smaller one. The following story demonstrates that well. The story begins in May 2012 when a group of eleven Lebanese Shiites described as “Pilgrims” were kidnapped in Syria on their way back to Lebanon from Iran. According to accumulating information evaluated as reliable, among the kidnapped were senior military and political activists of Hezbollah (read more about that incident in my article “Nasrallah Gets a Taste of his own Bitter Medicine” published on June…

On The Edge of The Cliff

******* Intelligence Bulletin Information Date:     August 23, 2013 Event Date:     August 23, 2013 Information Item:     Lethal Attacks on Sunni Mosques in Northern Lebanon Information Platform:     Various Source:     Varied Source Reliability:     Confirmed Spring:     Varied Spring Reliability:     Reliable Relevant Information:     Two explosions occurred on Friday, August 23 in the city of Tripoli, the largest city in the northern part of Lebanon. The targets of the attacks were two major Sunni mosques. As of now, 45 people are reported dead and more that 500 injured. So far no one has claimed responsibility for the attacks. The city of Tripoli, with a population of some half a million people is predominately Sunni. There is, however, a group of Alawites who reside in one of…

The Spider Caught in its Own Web

May 31, 2013 by Avi Melamed Since late 2011, I have been outlining a scenario in which Hezbollah in Lebanon would find itself in a violent confrontation with a Sunni Syrian-Lebanese crescent (links to articles on the subject are at the bottom). These very days – right in front of our eyes – it is happening… On Sunday May 26 three rockets were fired at Al Dahya Al Janobiya in the southern quarter of Beirut – the capital of Lebanon. As many of you may remember from my article Inside Hezbollah’s Private Dominion (February 2012), Al Dahya Al Janobiya is the major stronghold of Hezbollah in Lebanon. The attack on Hezbollah’s stronghold is not a surprise. Syrian rebels and Lebanese…

Israel Opening Its Doors to Syrian Refugees?

******* Immediate Intelligence Bulletin Information Date: May 11, 2013 Event Date: May 10, 2013               Information Item: Israel Allowing Syrian Civilians to Enter Israel       Information Platform: Arab source Source: Random Source Reliability: Unknown Information Validity: Unknown Relevant Information: According to Syrian sources affiliated with the rebels in Syria, Israel allowed the entrance of Syrian civilians from the town of Al-Rafeed, located in the central part of the Syrian Golan Heights. The small town of Al-Rafeed is located in the A Zone of the Israeli-Syrian ceasefire line in the Golan Height about a half a mile from the Israeli side. Since the outbreak of war in Syria there were no reports of Syrian civilians trying to enter Israel. However, on different occasions…

Iranian Soldiers Carry Passports to Heaven – Intelligence Bulletin

******* Intelligence Bulletin Information Date:              April 14, 2013 Event Date:                             Recent – Specific Date Unknown                      Information Item:              Iranian Soldiers in Syria carry “Passports to Heaven”       Information Platform:      Arab Media, Visual Source:                                   Ahrar Al Sham Group (Syria) Source Reliability:              Unknown Relevant Information:      Reportedly, a “Passport to Heaven” was found in the possession of an Iranian soldier in a recent raid conducted by the rebel group, Ahrar Al Sham Al Islamiya, on the base of the 17th Brigade of Assad‘s army in the city of Rakka. Accumulating reports indicate that members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards have been sent to Syria to support the Assad regime in the war in Syria. It should be mentioned that during the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988) the Iranian…

Did Assad’s Army Launch a Chemical Warhead on a Syrian town?

******* Immediate Intelligence Bulletin Information Date: March 19, 2013 Information Item: Did Assad’s Army launch a chemical warhead on Syrian town? Event Date: March 19, 2013 Information Details: A Free Syrian Army official argues that Assad’s army launched a long range missile armed with a chemical warhead on the Syrian city of Han Ala’sal, located in the outskirts of Aleppo in northern Syria. Information Platform: Arab Media Source: Free Syrian Army Source reliability: Unknown Information Validity: Unknown Relevant Information: Earlier today, Syrian national TV reported that Syrian rebels fired a chemical warhead on the town of Han Ala’sal killing 15 people and injuring dozens. That report was not confirmed. It should be noted that in the beginning of December 2012, a Free Syrian…

Just Back From Nigeria

Avi Melamed in Office of DIA Commander Avi Melamed just returned from Abuja, Nigeria. Avi was invited by the Nigeria Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA)*.to a National Security Conference to speak about the Middle East from an Intelligence and Geostrategic Perspective. The sponsors of the Conference, the Center for Strategic Studies* in Nigeria held the program at the DIA Academy. For two full days – March 7 and 8, Avi briefed the top Intelligence, Governmental and Military officials in Nigeria on the current challenges and developments in the Middle East and the short term and long terms ramifications of the current events. The Conference’s goal was to expand the Nigerian security, military and government leaders’ understanding of current security issues; to…

Intelligence Bulletin March 12, 2013 Clashes in Ain al-Hilweh, a Palestinian Refugee Camp in South Lebanon

******* Intelligence Bulletin March 12, 2013 Information Date: March 12, 2013 Event Date: March 11, 2013 Information Item: Clashes in Ain al-Hilweh, a Palestinian Refugee Camp in South Lebanon. Information Details: According to my sources clashes broke out during the night of March 11 and continued into the next day in a neighborhood called Ras al-Ahmar in the Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp. Reportedly, the clashes were a result of an attempted assassination of a senior leader of the Sunni Jihadist militant group known as Fatah al-Islam. The clashes resulted in a few injuries. Source: Media Platform, Neutral Sources, Others Source Reliability: Reliable Information Validity: Valid Relevant information: One person injured in the clashes – the apparent target of the assassination attempt – is identified as…

Free Syrian Army gives ultimatum to Hezbollah

Immediate Intelligence Bulletin By: Avi Melamed Item: Free Syrian Army gives ultimatum to Hezbollah Information Date: 2/19/2013 Information: Tonight the Free Syrian Army Headquarters send out a formal ultimatum to Hezbollah in Lebanon demanding that Hezbollah stop shooting from Lebanon into Syria within 48 hours. According to the ultimatum, if Hezbollah fails to comply with this demand, it will result in the retaliation of the Syrian Free Army upon Hezbollah’s positions in northern Lebanon from which the rockets are being launched into Syrian territory. The Lebanese residents of the Lebanese town of Al Harmal are being warned to keep stay away from Hezbollah’s rockets and artillery positions. Source: Media Source Reliability: Evaluated as reliable Information validity: Confirmed Relevant information: Read my previous articles about Hezbollah’s involvement…

How, Where and When was the Iranian General Killed?

February 15. 2013 by Avi Melamed According to reports, sometime between Wednesday and Thursday night (February 13-14) a senior Iranian official named Husam Chod Nuis described as “the Iranian President’s Representative in Lebanon” was killed in an ambush. According to sources, this man was actually an Iranian General named Hassan Shatri, and he was the key Iranian in Lebanon and Syria: • For the past seven years Shatri served as the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Forces in Lebanon. • He was in charge of the Iranian financial support of Hezbollah – totaling some $200,000,000 a year. • He was in charge of the military training of Hezbollah forces. • He was in charge of the transport of weapons…

Did A Senior Hezbollah Commander Escape an Assassination Plot?

February 7, 2013  By Avi Melamed According to unconfirmed information, from a source I evaluate as fairly reliable, Wafiq Safa, the head of the “Central Liaison and Cooperation Committee” of Hezbollah in Lebanon, was injured at the beginning of the month in an explosion in the Sulm neighborhood in Beirut. It is not clear if it was an assassination plot, but there are reasons to affirm the suspicions. Safa, born in 1960 in the town of Zibdin in South Lebanon, is the brother-in-law of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah. For years he was Hezbollah’s “man in the shadows” – his name was “The Ghost.” He is considered to be a member of the most powerful inner-circle within the organization.…

Wikistrat Next Generation Strategy Ask a Sr. Analyst Exercise

Ask A Senior Analyst – Mr. Avi Melamed   Mr. Avi Melamed Editor’s Note: Wikistrat’s Facebook followers recently engaged in a 24-hour exclusive Q&A drill with one of Wikistrat’s Senior Analysts – Mr. Avi Melamed. Mr. Avi Melamed, former Israeli Senior Official on Arab Affairs and is an independent Middle East Strategic Intelligence Analyst and lecturer specialized in the current affairs of the Arab and Muslim world, as well as their impact on Israel and the region more widely. Mr. Melamed provides intelligence analysis, briefings and tours to diplomats, Israeli and foreign policy makers, international media outlets and a wide variety of organizations as well as private clients on a range of Israeli and Middle Eastern affairs. Miguel Nunes Silva: …

Arab Perspectives on Operation Pillar of Defense (part 2)

In Part 1 of this 2 Part Series that I originally filmed for Feenjan (please see below for more info), in Arabic (with English subtitles) I talked about the way Arabs view Israel’s motivation to launch Operation Pillar of Defense. In this video (part 2) I present you different questions some in the Arab world are beginning to ask regarding the Palestinian narrative and Radical Islamic perspective on victory, real achievements and “The Resistance*.” *The Resistance, in Arabic al-muqawama, is an all-encompassing philosophy. For more information on al-muqawama click here. Below are some articles I’ve written on the subject : Is War in the Middle East Inevitable? Inside Hezbollah’s Private Dominion Making Friends with a Scorpion: the Murder of the Italian Peace Activist in…

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