Information:     Since early December 2018 until the date of this Intelligence Bulletin, Lebanese Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah has not appeared in public, nor has he delivered any visual or audio messages. Reportedly, he is hospitalized following a heart attack. The reports are denied by Hezbollah as well as by a Senior Iranian Official. Hezbollah is a Lebanese Shi’ite organization,…

ANNOUNCING MY NEW LECTURE TOUR SEPTEMBER 27- NOVEMBER 25, 2017   Game of Pawns ~ The Middle East 2017   A smoking volcano erupted into the Arab Awakening – and the aftershocks, including the War in Syria, the widening Sunni-Shi’ite rift, and the escalating Arab-Persian power struggle have brought about a tectonic plate movement that is shaping a new Middle…

Immediate Intelligence Bulletin   July 16th, 2017 Terror attack at the Temple Mount Compound: Regional Reactions (** This is an immediate Bulletin. I will publish a more detailed Intelligence Report over the next few days **) Information: On Friday July 14, 2017, three Israeli-Arabs opened fire on Israeli Border Patrol Police securing the Temple Mount Compound in Jerusalem, called Al-Haram…

*** Immediate Intelligence Bulletin ***  July 11, 2017   Arab News Platforms Echo Reports ISIS Leader Dead Information: According to information echoed on July 11, 2017 on some Arab news platforms. ISIS will soon announce the death of its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. A platform associated with ISIS echoed – yet did not confirm – the report. In addition, the…

July 27, 2016 ******* Intelligence Bulletin Use of Surface-to-Surface Missiles by Syrian Rebels Expands (Following my July 23rd Twitter post and July 24th Intelligence Bulletin) Information Date: July 25th, 2016 Event Date: July 24th / 25th, 2016 Information Item: Syrian rebel group Jaysh Al-Islam launches two missiles in Aleppo Information Platform: Osint (Open Source Intelligence), Varied, Video Source:           Jaysh Al-Islam…

July 1st, 2016 by Avi Melamed General Background: The Islamic Jihad Movement in Palestine, Harakat al-Jihād al-Islāmi fi Filastīn, most widely known as the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) is a Sunni Islamic group, established in the late 1970’s. The PIJ is a Palestinian organization inspired by Jihadi Islamist Militant ideology. The goal of Jihadi Islamist Militant ideology is to create,…

by Avi Melamed For the past generation, America’s Middle East policy has primarily been a chronology of failures. The proactive promotion of democratization in Iraq, Egypt, and the Palestinian arena resulted in catastrophes. Leading from behind appears to have failed too, as chaos in the Middle East deepens, and U.S. outreach to Iran raises tensions and creates instability in the…

Published in The Cipherbrief,  February 2016 by Avi Melamed   The collapse or weakening of state authority in different parts of the Middle East and Africa, together with growing inner challenges and chronic instability in large parts of the region and the widening and escalating Iranian-Arab power struggle, creates a chaotic environment militant Islamic groups exploit to expand their activities…

March 30, 2015  Crisis in Yemen: Significant Milestone by Avi Melamed   In October 2014 I published an article entitled “Sixty Six Egyptian Fisherman, Yemen, and Instability in The Middle East” in which I said: The events in the fall of 2014 would result in increasing instability in the Middle East The developments in Yemen at that time would have serious regional ramifications Saudi Arabia and Egypt would not tolerate the deteriorating situation in Yemen threatening their strategic interests My predictions have been fully realized: On March 25th, a military coalition of the Arab Gulf states (except for Oman) plus Jordan, Morocco, and Sudan, and one non-Arab state (Pakistan), led by Saudi Arabia, launched aerial attacks on Houthi Shiite tribe…

A New Middle East Requires a New Understanding. Events of an historic scale are rocking the Middle East. I have spent many years of my life in the streets of the Arab world.  I have watched the Arab Awakening evolve and erupt from the inside. The Middle East in changing before our very eyes, the landscape is shifting and changing every day, and can drastically change any minute now. My upcoming US lecture tour will help you understand the present and navigate the future. Egypt, the biggest and most important Arab State, is embroiled a fierce battle over its identity. Iraq, Libya, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen are disintegrating in a bloody and violent process. Lebanon, once known as the Paris…

 ******* Intelligence Bulletin Information Date:    October 22, 2013 Event Date:     October 22, 2013 Information Item:    Are we facing an immediate outbreak of violence in the Gaza  Strip? Information Platform:    Varied Source:    Varied Source Reliability:    Unknown Spring:    Hamas, Islamic Jihad in Palestine (IJP) official platforms Spring Reliability:    Reliable Information Validity:    Valid Relevant Information:    A Palestinian militant named Muhammad Rabah A’si was killed today in a clash with the IDF. A’si was killed while hiding in a cave in the West Bank. Reportedly, A’si was the planner of an attack on an Israeli bus in the city of Tel Aviv (November 21, 2012). Following his killing, the Ezzedeen Al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, formally announced that A’si was one of their members.…

Dear Friends, It is my pleasure to inform you that I will be in the USA during the second part of September for a short lecture tour focusing on the current events in the Arab World and their impact on Israel. The events in the Middle East obviously capture media headlines and public interest – and with talk of a possible US strike on Syria coverage seems to be at a fever-pitch. As always, I am personally honored and thankful for every event I am invited to and every stage I am given to add to people’s knowledge and understanding of our complex region – especially at this crucial time when a true understanding of what’s happening in the region…

******* Intelligence Bulletin Information Date:     August 23, 2013 Event Date:     August 23, 2013 Information Item:     Lethal Attacks on Sunni Mosques in Northern Lebanon Information Platform:     Various Source:     Varied Source Reliability:     Confirmed Spring:     Varied Spring Reliability:     Reliable Relevant Information:     Two explosions occurred on Friday, August 23 in the city of Tripoli, the largest city in the northern part of Lebanon. The targets of the attacks were two major Sunni mosques. As of now, 45 people are reported dead and more that 500 injured. So far no one has claimed responsibility for the attacks. The city of Tripoli, with a population of some half a million people is predominately Sunni. There is, however, a group of Alawites who reside in one of…

******* Intelligence Bulletin   Information Date:                          August 10, 2013               Event Date:                                      August 9, 2013 Information Item:                          Senior Hamas Commander killed in Sinai Peninsula? Information Platform:                   Arab Media Source:                                              Varied Source Reliability:                           Unknown Spring:                                               Unknown Spring Reliability:                            Unknown Information Validity:                    Not confirmed Relevant information:                   On August 9, 2013 a group of Jihadist militants were killed in an air raid in the area of Al-Arish in the northern part of the Sinai Peninsula. Apparently the group was finalizing preparations to launch rocket attacks probably targeting Israeli territory. Reports on Arab media platforms – though denied by formal Egyptian spokespersons – argue that the air raid was carried out by an Israeli drone and was coordinated with the Egyptian army who is…