August 14, 2011 Avi wrote an article The Middle East:  Where Rhetoric is Rarely Reality on the impending crash of Hezbollah’s image in the Arab world.  “…The growing intervention of Iran in the internal affairs of Arab States; the public and practical support that Iran and Hezbollah provide the Assad government that brutally oppresses the uprising of the Syrian people; the increasing threats that Iran makes towards its Arab neighbors in the Gulf area; and of course the Tribunal’s report – all these events increase the feelings of resentment among Sunni Arabs towards the Shiites, and the animosity of Arab states toward Iran and its proxy Hezbollah.”  May 1, 2012 the president of Tunisia in a formal interview declares that Nasrallah…

February 25, 2012 by Avi Melamed The Iranian nuclear military program and the possibility of a massive military collision in the Middle East are clearly occupying the world’s attention. These concerns are not groundless.  However, is military confrontation inevitable? In this article, I would like to bring your attention to the fact that at this specific moment, due to the…

February 14, 2012 by Avi Melamed The southern quarter of Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, is known by the name Al Dahya Al Janobiya.  Since the 1980’s Al Dahya has been primarily populated by Shiites most of whom came to Beirut from the southern part of Lebanon and the  Beqa’a area (a 120 km long and narrow valley in the center of Lebanon). Al Dahya is also the nerve center of  Hezbollah.  Al Dahya is the home of Hezbollah’s central headquarters as well as their main offices, thousands of Hezbollah members live there, including its senior leadership.  Al Dahya, like southern Lebanon and the Beqa’a area, is completely under the control of Hezbollah.  Practically speaking, the State of Lebanon has…

November 20, 2011 by Avi Melamed In October 2011 the US administration announced that it had successfully intercepted an Iranian terror plot to assassinate the Saudi Arabian Ambassador to the US in Washington DC and to attack the Embassies of Israel and Saudi Arabia in the United States as well as in Argentina. The involvement of the Iranian regime in terrorist schemes is not new.  To learn more please read an article I published in 2009 – “Masters of Chaos: The Iranian Mullah Regime.” The recent alleged Iranian plot is keeping the media, analysts and intelligence agencies very busy. One major question asked often these days in Arab media is:  Is it true or was it American spin aimed to set…

  October 30, 2011 by Avi Melamed About 3 years ago, Khaled Mashal (also known as Abu Walid) the leader of Hamas in Damascus, received a phone call from Omar Suleiman, the head of the Egyptian General Intelligence Service. “I have some good news, Abu Walid,” said Suleiman, “Israel has agreed to release one thousand Palestinian prisoners in return for (the Israeli soldier that was abducted by Hamas in June 2006) Gilad Shalit.” Mashal was ecstatic! “Great news!” he said “You have the green light from me to close the deal.” Omar Suleiman informed Hosni Mubarak, Egypt’s president at the time, and Mubarak in turn, informed Bashar al-Assad, the president of Syria. Assad was furious. “Mashal is not in a…

September 1, 2012 by Avi Melamed The calls in Egypt today to revise and even to abolish the Israeli-Egyptian Peace Treaty have grabbed the headlines.  Is the Treaty in danger?  Will it be abolished?  From my analysis the answer is no.  What follows is my reasoning. The main characteristic defining the atmosphere in Egypt today is what I have labeled “political fever.”  More than 20 Egyptians have announced their intention to run for president and dozens of political parties have been formed in the wake of the Mubarak government’s demise. At the same time contemporary Egypt faces enormous challenges.  The most important of these involves their anemic economy which is on the verge of bankruptcy.  It is not at all clear…

  August 24, 2011 by Avi Melamed On the evening hours of Tuesday, August 24th, the sound of machine guns, automatic weapons and anti-tank rockets (rpg’s) echoed all around Beirut, the Capitol of Lebanon. A bloody fight took place in the western area of the city known as Burj Abi Heidar, between Hezbollah militants (the Iranian proxy in Lebanon) and the militia of an organization named  “Alahbash” (a Syrian affiliated Sunni Muslim organization established in 1983). Hezbollah and Alahbash are considered to be “politically aligned.” Militants on both sides were shooting at each other on the streets.  Residential areas in an instant became a war zone. A mosque was burned down to the ground. Some reports indicated that a local supermarket…