Avi Melamed.

Tag: Hassan Nasrallah

Lebanon: No Land for Beginning Politicians

January 7, 2017 Lebanon: No Land for Beginning Politicians by Avi Melamed   On October 31st 2016, 81-year-old, General Michele ‘Aoun, former Chief of Staff of the Lebanese Armed Forces was nominated by the Lebanese Parliament as the new President of Lebanon. In December 2016, a new government was formed in Lebanon under the leadership of the Prime Minister of…

The War in Syria – A Mutual Chokehold

May 7, 2014   The War in Syria – A Mutual Chokehold By Avi Melamed Pay attention to the Syrian town of Tfail. Tfail is a Lebanese enclave located in the Al-Kalmun mountain range in Syria about a mile away from the Lebanese border. It is a town of about 5,000 people – all Lebanese citizens (though the town is located inside Syria) – the majority of whom are Sunnis. Reportedly, following the recent battles in the region, dozens of thousands of Syrians fleeing the war in Syria found refuge on the outskirts of Tfail. Hezbollah argues that these refugees are not civilians, but rather Syrian rebels who fled following the recent fighting in the area of the Al-Kalmun. Reportedly,…

The Spider Caught in its Own Web

May 31, 2013 by Avi Melamed Since late 2011, I have been outlining a scenario in which Hezbollah in Lebanon would find itself in a violent confrontation with a Sunni Syrian-Lebanese crescent (links to articles on the subject are at the bottom). These very days – right in front of our eyes – it is happening… On Sunday May 26 three rockets were fired at Al Dahya Al Janobiya in the southern quarter of Beirut – the capital of Lebanon. As many of you may remember from my article Inside Hezbollah’s Private Dominion (February 2012), Al Dahya Al Janobiya is the major stronghold of Hezbollah in Lebanon. The attack on Hezbollah’s stronghold is not a surprise. Syrian rebels and Lebanese…

Did A Senior Hezbollah Commander Escape an Assassination Plot?

February 7, 2013  By Avi Melamed According to unconfirmed information, from a source I evaluate as fairly reliable, Wafiq Safa, the head of the “Central Liaison and Cooperation Committee” of Hezbollah in Lebanon, was injured at the beginning of the month in an explosion in the Sulm neighborhood in Beirut. It is not clear if it was an assassination plot, but there are reasons to affirm the suspicions. Safa, born in 1960 in the town of Zibdin in South Lebanon, is the brother-in-law of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah. For years he was Hezbollah’s “man in the shadows” – his name was “The Ghost.” He is considered to be a member of the most powerful inner-circle within the organization.…

Wikistrat Next Generation Strategy Ask a Sr. Analyst Exercise

Ask A Senior Analyst – Mr. Avi Melamed   Mr. Avi Melamed Editor’s Note: Wikistrat’s Facebook followers recently engaged in a 24-hour exclusive Q&A drill with one of Wikistrat’s Senior Analysts – Mr. Avi Melamed. Mr. Avi Melamed, former Israeli Senior Official on Arab Affairs and is an independent Middle East Strategic Intelligence Analyst and lecturer specialized in the current affairs of the Arab and Muslim world, as well as their impact on Israel and the region more widely. Mr. Melamed provides intelligence analysis, briefings and tours to diplomats, Israeli and foreign policy makers, international media outlets and a wide variety of organizations as well as private clients on a range of Israeli and Middle Eastern affairs. Miguel Nunes Silva: …

Arab Journalist Challenges Arab Media

December 9, 2012 Below is a translation of an article by the Kuwaiti journalist, Abdullah Al Hadlaq.  I referred to it in my video: Arab Perspectives on Operation Pillar of Defense.    The article, quite an exceptional one, was published in the Al-Watan newspaper in Kuwait on November 19, 2012.  I bring this piece to you attention because it is my goal to expose you to the Arab voices that advocate for “the Israeli side.” I hope you find it interesting and valuable.  A Word of Truth: Double Standards and Not Calling Things by their Real Name by Abdullah Al Hadlaq When terror organizations in the Gaza Strip, including Hamas, launch rockets on Israeli cities attempting to kill innocent civilians including…

Drone Games

October 19, 2012 by Avi Melamed On October 11 I published an article Mysterious Blasts as Hezbollah Sinks in the Syrian Mud.  This article is a follow-up to that piece. On October 6 Hezbollah, a Lebanese organization, launched a drone which infiltrated southern Israel.  The drone was shot down by the Israeli Air Force. On October 11, in a televized speech, Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, formally claimed responsibility for the incident.  In addition, he announced that the drone was manufactured by Iran and assembled in Lebanon.  Over the course of the first few days following the incident, Iranian web sites associated with the IRG (The Iranian Revolutionary Guards) hinted that Iran was involved in the launch, and described it…

Mysterious Blasts as Hezbollah Sinks in the Syrian Mud

October 11, 2012 by Avi Melamed Nasrallah made a speech tonight (Israel time) in which he claimed responsibility for the launching of the unmanned drone that was intercepted by the Israeli Air Force after infiltrating Israel on October 6th.  This speech was clearly an attempt to repair Hezbollah’s damaged image and to regain popularity in the Arab world by using the “defying Israel card.” First and foremost, Nasrallah’s speech reflects the deepening crisis Hezbollah is mired in as the organization sinks in the Syrian mud. Hezbollah’s active involvement in the war in Syria is no longer a secret.  Hezbollah militants openly fight side by side with Assad’s troops against the Free Syrian Army. Hezbollah’s troubles are accumulating. Since May 2012…

Nasrallah is sending a message…..But to whom ??

August 23, 2012 by Avi Melamed Arab source reports that last week Hezbollah conducted the largest military ground maneuver exercise in its history.  The operation, held in the Beqa’a (the Lebanese valley) included 10,000 members of Hezbollah’s elite force – many of the militants are 16 – 20 years old. Nasrallah personally attended and monitored part of the exercise together with officers of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. The maneuver simulated Hezbollah’s takeover of the Upper Galilee area in Israel. Hezbollah’s tactics resembled the ones they practiced during the 2006 war with one main difference – the new advanced weapon systems supplied to Hezbollah by Iran.  Their new arsenal includes advanced anti-tank missiles and drones that can be used for both intelligence…

Nasrallah Is Sending a message….But to whom ??

23/8/2012. Last week Hezbollah conducted the largest military ground maneuver exercise in its history.  The operation, held in the Beqa’a (the Lebanese valley) included 10,000 members of Hezbollah’s elite force – many of the militants are 16 – 20 years old.  Nasrallah personally attended and monitored part of the exercise together with officers of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. The maneuver simulated Hezbollah’s takeover of the Upper Galilee area in Israel. Hezbollah’s tactics resembled the ones they practiced during the 2006 war with one main difference – the new advanced weapon systems supplied to Hezbollah by Iran.  Their new arsenal includes advanced anti-tank missiles and drones that can be used for both intelligence and surveillance purposes, as well as high precision…

Hezbollah Sunni Tension Rises

July 15, 2012 by Avi Melamed March 1, 2012, Avi publishes and article Is war in the Middle East inevitable? In which he outlines the increasing probability of a violent collision between Hezbollah and the Sunnis in Syria and Lebanon following the downfall of the Assad regime in Syria.  “…The majority of Syrians are Sunnis. They will never forget nor forgive Hassan Nasrallah for supporting the cold-blooded massacre of more than 8,000 (and counting) Syrians, most of whom are Sunnis. With Assad gone, Hezbollah may very well find itself confronting massively armed, enraged Sunni militants at the same time its weapons supply route is cut…Hezbollah could very well find itself fighting for its life—and the Lebanese will once again find…

Who is Nasrallah Really Afraid Of?

August 14, 2011 Avi Melamed wrote in his article The Middle East: Where Rhetoric is Rarely Reality: “…Nasrallah has been hiding underground since 2006. And he will keep on hiding.  Nasrallah knows that once he ventures out in public he will be killed.  Not by Israel, but rather by Sunni radical groups in Lebanon.“ July 3, 2012 the President of Israel declares that Nasrallah hides in his bunker because he is afraid of the Lebanese. Not because of Israel.

Nasrallah Gets a Taste of his Own Bitter Medicine

June 21, 2012 by Avi Melamed While the world continues to witness the ongoing tragedy in Syria, there is another “mini-drama” simultaneously taking place in that country which is significant. On May 22nd reports began to flow in from different sources that Lebanese Shiite pilgrims returning from Iran had been kidnapped inside Syria. It seems that the sequence of the events was as follows: On May 22nd two buses carrying Lebanese men and women entered Syria via the Salama crossing located on the Syrian-Turkish border. One bus had the sign “Musa Sadr” and the other had the sign “AlBader AlKubra” (read the links for the meaning of those names). Shortly after crossing into Syrian territory the buses were stopped by…

Nasrallah is finished in the Arab World

August 14, 2011 Avi wrote an article The Middle East:  Where Rhetoric is Rarely Reality on the impending crash of Hezbollah’s image in the Arab world.  “…The growing intervention of Iran in the internal affairs of Arab States; the public and practical support that Iran and Hezbollah provide the Assad government that brutally oppresses the uprising of the Syrian people; the increasing threats that Iran makes towards its Arab neighbors in the Gulf area; and of course the Tribunal’s report – all these events increase the feelings of resentment among Sunni Arabs towards the Shiites, and the animosity of Arab states toward Iran and its proxy Hezbollah.”  May 1, 2012 the president of Tunisia in a formal interview declares that Nasrallah…

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