Avi Melamed.

Tag: Hamas

Hamas Breathes a Sigh of Relief

August 3, 2014 Hamas Breathes a Sigh of Relief   by Avi Melamed The next line will probably astonish many people. When Israel formally announced that the IDF kidnapped Officer, Hadar Goldin, was pronounced dead – Hamas breathed a sigh of relief. This sentence seems totally crazy; it doesn’t make any sense. After all, Hamas’ strategic objective was, and is, to abduct an Israeli – preferably a soldier – that will be a bargaining chip for the release of Palestinians imprisoned in Israel. Hamas wishes to recreate the case of Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier who was abducted and held in captivity by Hamas for more than 5 years (2006-2011) who was released in exchange for more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners.…

Bewildering American Move – Operation Protective Edge

Why was US Secretary of State John Kerry’s latest cease fire proposal rejected by Egypt, Israel, the Palestinian Authority and Saudi Arabia? Another misstep on the part of the US Administration stemming from a misreading of the Middle Eastern Map, results in the US government scrambling to do damage control. As the Middle East goes through increasing turbulence, stemming from the enormous challenges the region is confronting, it is critical that the West, especially the United States, understand how to foster and cultivate stability in the face of those that are determined to foment instability.   Avi Melamed, former Israeli Senior Official on Arab Affairs and former Intelligence Official and educator, is today an Independent Middle East Strategic Intelligence Analyst,…

Muqawama, Money, Missiles

July 15, 2014 Muqawama, Money, Missiles By Avi Melamed The current round of violence between Israel and Hamas is caused by the simplest reason imaginable, yet very few are aware of it. MONEY. Let’s start with a clarification. Today, the real boss in the Gaza Strip, is a massively armed military force of about ten to fifteen thousand Palestinians known as the Ezzedeen Al-Qassam Brigades. Ezzedeen Al-Qassam is often presented as the military wing of Hamas – the rulers of the Gaza Strip. However, that definition should be revised to more accurately reflect the current reality. Today, the militia – the Ezzedeen Al-Qassam Brigades, who rule the Gaza Strip – have a political wing, named Hamas. It is the Ezzedeen…

Are we Facing an Immediate Outbreak of Violence in the Gaza Strip?

 ******* Intelligence Bulletin Information Date:    October 22, 2013 Event Date:     October 22, 2013 Information Item:    Are we facing an immediate outbreak of violence in the Gaza  Strip? Information Platform:    Varied Source:    Varied Source Reliability:    Unknown Spring:    Hamas, Islamic Jihad in Palestine (IJP) official platforms Spring Reliability:    Reliable Information Validity:    Valid Relevant Information:    A Palestinian militant named Muhammad Rabah A’si was killed today in a clash with the IDF. A’si was killed while hiding in a cave in the West Bank. Reportedly, A’si was the planner of an attack on an Israeli bus in the city of Tel Aviv (November 21, 2012). Following his killing, the Ezzedeen Al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, formally announced that A’si was one of their members.…

Was a Senior Hamas Commander Killed in the Sinai Peninsula?

******* Intelligence Bulletin   Information Date:                          August 10, 2013               Event Date:                                      August 9, 2013 Information Item:                          Senior Hamas Commander killed in Sinai Peninsula? Information Platform:                   Arab Media Source:                                              Varied Source Reliability:                           Unknown Spring:                                               Unknown Spring Reliability:                            Unknown Information Validity:                    Not confirmed Relevant information:                   On August 9, 2013 a group of Jihadist militants were killed in an air raid in the area of Al-Arish in the northern part of the Sinai Peninsula. Apparently the group was finalizing preparations to launch rocket attacks probably targeting Israeli territory. Reports on Arab media platforms – though denied by formal Egyptian spokespersons – argue that the air raid was carried out by an Israeli drone and was coordinated with the Egyptian army who is…

The Alliance of Fear in Lebanon

June 6, 2013 by Avi Melamed As the war in Syria percolates into Lebanon and Iraq, turning into a massive Sunni-Shiite collision, it is worthwhile to take a close look at another factor in Lebanon – The Palestinians. Some half a million Palestinians (who are all Sunni) live in Lebanon. They live in large refugee camps scattered throughout most of Lebanon. The biggest one is Ain Al-Hilweh, located next to the city of Sidon, the biggest city in southern Lebanon, which is also predominately Sunni. Other large camps are located in the vicinity of Beirut as well as in the area surrounding Tripoli, the biggest city in northern Lebanon, which similar to Sidon, is also predominately Sunni. The scenario of…

One Israeli Soldier Impacts the Arab World

May 21, 2013 In June 2006 the Palestinian organization, Hamas, abducted Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier. Shalit was held in captivity inside the Gaza Strip for more than five years. During this period of time the Israeli government and Hamas held long and complex negotiations regarding the terms for Shalit’s release. Throughout Gilad’s captivity, an intense ongoing campaign for his release was waged inside Israel and across the world. The campaign put pressure on the Israeli government to pay a high price, if needed, to bring Gilad Shalit back home. That demand reflects one of the most profound values of Israeli society – Israel’s moral obligation and responsibility to do whatever it may take to bring back home abducted or missing Israeli soldiers. The campaign…

Rockets Expert Killed in Israeli Air Strike in Gaza

******* Intelligence Bulletin Information Date: April 30 2013 Event Date: April 30 2013 Information Item: Rockets Expert Killed in Israeli Air Strike in Gaza Information Platform: Media Source: Variety Source Reliability: Reliable Information Validity: Valid Relevant Information: The militant killed was involved in recent rocket attacks on Israeli communities. A Salafi Jihadist group known as Majlis Shurah Al-mujaheedin – Aknaf Beit Almakdas claimed responsibility for these attacks. According to unconfirmed information, the militant killed was member of a Salafi –Jihadist group called Kataeb Seif Al-Islam (Palestine) it is the first time I have come across the name of this alleged group. Other information suggests that the militant killed was in fact a freelance expert on explosives who offer his services…

Intelligence Bulletin March 12, 2013 Clashes in Ain al-Hilweh, a Palestinian Refugee Camp in South Lebanon

******* Intelligence Bulletin March 12, 2013 Information Date: March 12, 2013 Event Date: March 11, 2013 Information Item: Clashes in Ain al-Hilweh, a Palestinian Refugee Camp in South Lebanon. Information Details: According to my sources clashes broke out during the night of March 11 and continued into the next day in a neighborhood called Ras al-Ahmar in the Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp. Reportedly, the clashes were a result of an attempted assassination of a senior leader of the Sunni Jihadist militant group known as Fatah al-Islam. The clashes resulted in a few injuries. Source: Media Platform, Neutral Sources, Others Source Reliability: Reliable Information Validity: Valid Relevant information: One person injured in the clashes – the apparent target of the assassination attempt – is identified as…

Intelligence Bulletin – Are Egyptian officers being held hostage in the Gaza Strip?

******* Intelligence Bulletin   Item:                                       Egyptian officers being held hostage in the Gaza Strip? Information Date:             8/3/2013 Information:                         The wife of an Egyptian officer who was kidnapped in the Sinai Peninsula said she was advised by the President of Egypt to “be patient.”  She says that her husband, who was kidnapped together with some of his colleagues, are being held hostage in the Gaza Strip by a Jihadist Palestinian group named Jeish Al-Islam that wants to trade the kidnapped men for one of the group’s activists who is currently imprisoned in Egypt. Source:                                  Media Source Reliability:            Evaluated as reliable Information Validity:      Likely to be valid Relevant information:     Similar information provided by a single source in November 2012 indicated that 3 or 4 Egyptian police officers…

Wikistrat Next Generation Strategy Ask a Sr. Analyst Exercise

Ask A Senior Analyst – Mr. Avi Melamed   Mr. Avi Melamed Editor’s Note: Wikistrat’s Facebook followers recently engaged in a 24-hour exclusive Q&A drill with one of Wikistrat’s Senior Analysts – Mr. Avi Melamed. Mr. Avi Melamed, former Israeli Senior Official on Arab Affairs and is an independent Middle East Strategic Intelligence Analyst and lecturer specialized in the current affairs of the Arab and Muslim world, as well as their impact on Israel and the region more widely. Mr. Melamed provides intelligence analysis, briefings and tours to diplomats, Israeli and foreign policy makers, international media outlets and a wide variety of organizations as well as private clients on a range of Israeli and Middle Eastern affairs. Miguel Nunes Silva: …

Arab Journalist Challenges Arab Media

December 9, 2012 Below is a translation of an article by the Kuwaiti journalist, Abdullah Al Hadlaq.  I referred to it in my video: Arab Perspectives on Operation Pillar of Defense.    The article, quite an exceptional one, was published in the Al-Watan newspaper in Kuwait on November 19, 2012.  I bring this piece to you attention because it is my goal to expose you to the Arab voices that advocate for “the Israeli side.” I hope you find it interesting and valuable.  A Word of Truth: Double Standards and Not Calling Things by their Real Name by Abdullah Al Hadlaq When terror organizations in the Gaza Strip, including Hamas, launch rockets on Israeli cities attempting to kill innocent civilians including…

Operation Pillar of Defense: Geopolitical Ramifications Part 2

November 29, 2012 Operation Pillar of Defense: Geopolitical Ramifications – Part 2 Hamas’ Cruel Dilemma In my previous article Operation Pillar of Defense: Geopolitical Ramifications – Part 1 , Rocket Attacks on Israel: Sirens in Israeli Cities Must Echo in the West I described the militant axis nurtured and operated by the Iranian regime known as “the axis of Resistance.”  I outlined the way Hamas has been dragged – in the latest round and in previous instances – by other Palestinian terror organizations in the Gaza Strip into escalating their attacks on Israeli targets.  I also gave an overview of the process of growing tensions between Hamas and other groups in the Gaza Strip and the ramifications of that process…

Operation Pillar of Defense – Geopolitical Ramifications Part 1

November 21, 2012 Operation Pillar of Defense: Geopolitical Ramifications – Part 1 Rocket Attacks on Israel: Sirens in Israeli Cities Must Echo in the West by: Avi Melamed It is essential to understand that the most current round of rocket attacks launched from the Gaza Strip onto Israeli cities is yet another chapter in the long War by Proxies imposed on Israel by the Iranian regime. On many occasions, I have described the militant axis nurtured and operated by the Iranian regime as “the axis of Resistance” (for an example read my article Masters of Chaos: The Iranian Mullah Regime, June 2010).  In this article I outlined the mechanisms this axis employs time and again to create violence and instability,…

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