Avi Melamed.

Tag: Egypt

Where is Egypt Heading?

July 14, 2013 by Avi Melamed In November 2011 I published an article entitled “The Arab Awakening: An Era of New Slogans” in which I focused on the Muslim Brotherhood movement (MB) in Egypt and the challenges it was facing now that Mubarak was gone and that their entry as a major player on the Egyptian political stage looked certain. In that article I wrote about the fact that during the political campaign, the MB political party eschewed the slogan used by the MB since their inception – “Islam is the solution” and replaced it with “We Will Do for Egypt’s Welfare.” I explained that the rationale behind that decision was that the movement understood that its historical slogan had…

Egypt: Countdown to June 30th 2013

by Avi Melamed Tension is skyrocketing in Egypt. On Sunday, June 30th, a massive demonstration is scheduled to take place in Cairo. This demonstration marks the climax of a widening public campaign launched in Egypt under the name “Tamarrud” (“Rebellion”). The Tamarrud campaign calls for the resignation of Egypt’s elected president Mohamed Morsi, the dispersing of the Egyptian Parliament and the holding of new elections. Ever since the revolution and the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak in January 2011, Egypt has been experiencing ongoing political turbulence, a deepening economic crisis, increasing disorder and escalating violence. The campaign and the expected demonstration are another link in a long chain of public expressions of discontent in Egypt. In December 2012 I published a video analyzing the situation…

The Alliance of Fear in Lebanon

June 6, 2013 by Avi Melamed As the war in Syria percolates into Lebanon and Iraq, turning into a massive Sunni-Shiite collision, it is worthwhile to take a close look at another factor in Lebanon – The Palestinians. Some half a million Palestinians (who are all Sunni) live in Lebanon. They live in large refugee camps scattered throughout most of Lebanon. The biggest one is Ain Al-Hilweh, located next to the city of Sidon, the biggest city in southern Lebanon, which is also predominately Sunni. Other large camps are located in the vicinity of Beirut as well as in the area surrounding Tripoli, the biggest city in northern Lebanon, which similar to Sidon, is also predominately Sunni. The scenario of…

One Israeli Soldier Impacts the Arab World

May 21, 2013 In June 2006 the Palestinian organization, Hamas, abducted Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier. Shalit was held in captivity inside the Gaza Strip for more than five years. During this period of time the Israeli government and Hamas held long and complex negotiations regarding the terms for Shalit’s release. Throughout Gilad’s captivity, an intense ongoing campaign for his release was waged inside Israel and across the world. The campaign put pressure on the Israeli government to pay a high price, if needed, to bring Gilad Shalit back home. That demand reflects one of the most profound values of Israeli society – Israel’s moral obligation and responsibility to do whatever it may take to bring back home abducted or missing Israeli soldiers. The campaign…

Rockets Expert Killed in Israeli Air Strike in Gaza

******* Intelligence Bulletin Information Date: April 30 2013 Event Date: April 30 2013 Information Item: Rockets Expert Killed in Israeli Air Strike in Gaza Information Platform: Media Source: Variety Source Reliability: Reliable Information Validity: Valid Relevant Information: The militant killed was involved in recent rocket attacks on Israeli communities. A Salafi Jihadist group known as Majlis Shurah Al-mujaheedin – Aknaf Beit Almakdas claimed responsibility for these attacks. According to unconfirmed information, the militant killed was member of a Salafi –Jihadist group called Kataeb Seif Al-Islam (Palestine) it is the first time I have come across the name of this alleged group. Other information suggests that the militant killed was in fact a freelance expert on explosives who offer his services…

Intelligence Bulletin – Are Egyptian officers being held hostage in the Gaza Strip?

******* Intelligence Bulletin   Item:                                       Egyptian officers being held hostage in the Gaza Strip? Information Date:             8/3/2013 Information:                         The wife of an Egyptian officer who was kidnapped in the Sinai Peninsula said she was advised by the President of Egypt to “be patient.”  She says that her husband, who was kidnapped together with some of his colleagues, are being held hostage in the Gaza Strip by a Jihadist Palestinian group named Jeish Al-Islam that wants to trade the kidnapped men for one of the group’s activists who is currently imprisoned in Egypt. Source:                                  Media Source Reliability:            Evaluated as reliable Information Validity:      Likely to be valid Relevant information:     Similar information provided by a single source in November 2012 indicated that 3 or 4 Egyptian police officers…

Wikistrat Next Generation Strategy Ask a Sr. Analyst Exercise

Ask A Senior Analyst – Mr. Avi Melamed   Mr. Avi Melamed Editor’s Note: Wikistrat’s Facebook followers recently engaged in a 24-hour exclusive Q&A drill with one of Wikistrat’s Senior Analysts – Mr. Avi Melamed. Mr. Avi Melamed, former Israeli Senior Official on Arab Affairs and is an independent Middle East Strategic Intelligence Analyst and lecturer specialized in the current affairs of the Arab and Muslim world, as well as their impact on Israel and the region more widely. Mr. Melamed provides intelligence analysis, briefings and tours to diplomats, Israeli and foreign policy makers, international media outlets and a wide variety of organizations as well as private clients on a range of Israeli and Middle Eastern affairs. Miguel Nunes Silva: …

Egypt’s Struggle for Consensus – Video Update

Operation Pillar of Defense: Geopolitical Ramifications Part 2

November 29, 2012 Operation Pillar of Defense: Geopolitical Ramifications – Part 2 Hamas’ Cruel Dilemma In my previous article Operation Pillar of Defense: Geopolitical Ramifications – Part 1 , Rocket Attacks on Israel: Sirens in Israeli Cities Must Echo in the West I described the militant axis nurtured and operated by the Iranian regime known as “the axis of Resistance.”  I outlined the way Hamas has been dragged – in the latest round and in previous instances – by other Palestinian terror organizations in the Gaza Strip into escalating their attacks on Israeli targets.  I also gave an overview of the process of growing tensions between Hamas and other groups in the Gaza Strip and the ramifications of that process…

Emerging Axis Signaling a More Pragmatic Hamas?

October 17, 2012 The Emirate of Qatar formally announced its intention to invest $254,000,000 in the Gaza Strip.  The money will be used to build a new hospital, new residential projects, new roads and new physical infrastructure.   The investment is expected to generate thousands of job opportunities for the people of Gaza who struggle with a 30% unemployment rate.  There were rumors that the Qatari Emir and/or his wife, Princess Moza, were supposed to have visited Gaza this week, but the trip was postponed.  This explains the fact that Gaza Streets were recently lined with huge billboards and posters of the Qatari Emir Hamad Bin Khalifa Al Thani with word “shukran” (“thank you” in Arabic).  Rumors of the supposed visit…

Are We Heading for an Escalation Following the Killing of a Jihad Militant by Israel?

October 14, 2012 by Avi Melamed According to reports in the Arab media, Hisham Ali Saidani AKA Abu al-Walid al-Maqdasi, the leader of the Jihadist Terror group called “Majlis Syurah Al Mujahidin Aknaf Baitul Maqdis” was killed tonight (October 13, 2012) during an Israeli Air Force interceptive operation in the Gaza Strip. “Majlis Syurah Al Mujahidin Aknaf Baitul Maqdis” is apparently an umbrella name of two Jihadist organizations “Al-Tawhid Wal-Jihad”* and “Ansar al-Sunnah.”  These groups are inspired by Al-Qaida yet the nature and character of their connection with Al-Qaida is not clear. In recent years these groups have launched terror attacks against Israeli cities in southern Israel as well as against Israeli Defense Forces deployed along the Israel–Egypt and Israel-Gaza…

Riots in Egypt

October 13, 2012 by Avi Melamed Egypt’s turmoil continues. Yesterday Cairo witnessed violent clashes between different political groups. Please read my article “The Arab Awakening: An Era of New Slogans” ( published November  8,2011). In that article you will find the explanation for the current – and yet to come – turbulence in Egypt, as well as other parts of the Arab world.

The Iranians and the Mossad are in Cahoots and Other Assorted Distortions…

October 6, 2012 by Avi Melamed The violent events in the Arab and Muslim world sparked by the movie “Innocence of Muslims” do not reflect the majority of Muslims.  In fact, it is doing them a disservice because the truth is that the majority of Muslims reject extremism. That being said, the events do reflect the deep feelings of frustration and inferiority which are rampant today in the Muslim and Arab world.  These feelings stem from the fact that the Arab and Muslim world today is by and large an “underachieving” society – socially and economically – plagued by suffocating poverty, high rates of unemployment, ever-growing corruption, paralyzing illiteracy, lack of civil and personal rights, and escalating violence. The events that…

The Muslim Brotherhood Belly Dancing

September 22, 2012 November 8, 2011 Avi Melamed writes an article The Arab Awakening: An Era of New Slogans  “…The Arab world is in flux and the Muslim Brotherhood movement in Egypt, is now in unfamiliar territory – they are finally in the driver’s seat.   Therefore, they will have to bridge the gaps between their ideology and the need for pragmatism…I think it is quite reasonable to assume that the policy of the Muslim Brotherhood will be characterized by a permanent inner-tension that stems from their need to bridge their rigid ideology and their need for pragmatism.  And it is likely that this tension will create turbulence that will inevitably impact the region.”  September 22, 2012 an article published in L.A…

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