Avi Melamed.

Tag: Arab World

The Iranians and the Mossad are in Cahoots and Other Assorted Distortions…

October 6, 2012 by Avi Melamed The violent events in the Arab and Muslim world sparked by the movie “Innocence of Muslims” do not reflect the majority of Muslims.  In fact, it is doing them a disservice because the truth is that the majority of Muslims reject extremism. That being said, the events do reflect the deep feelings of frustration and inferiority which are rampant today in the Muslim and Arab world.  These feelings stem from the fact that the Arab and Muslim world today is by and large an “underachieving” society – socially and economically – plagued by suffocating poverty, high rates of unemployment, ever-growing corruption, paralyzing illiteracy, lack of civil and personal rights, and escalating violence. The events that…

The Egyptian President’s Brilliant Move

September 1, 2012 by Avi Melamed Many people in the Arab world didn’t understand why Egyptian President Mohammad Morsi went to Iran to participate in the Non-Alignment Meeting (NAM). The Arab world loathes the Iranian regime which:  supports Assad as he butchers Syrian citizens; dominates large portions of Iraq and Lebanon through proxies; is involved in espionage and terror activity throughout the Arab world, including in Egypt; and threatens its neighbors, the Arab Gulf States. It is no wonder then, that Morsi’s move was criticized by different factors in the Arab world. Yet, Morsi knew exactly what he was doing.   He went to Iran for one purpose.  To position himself and Egypt as the leader of Sunni Arabs who…

Egypt’s Game – “Good Cop, Bad Cop” ?

                August 22, 2012 by Avi Melamed   It seems as if Egypt is practicing a somewhat schizophrenic policy in the domestic and foreign arena.   On the one hand, senior leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood movement in Egypt officially express a hard line which reflects the movement’s intolerant ideology regarding various social and political issues including: the rights of minorities, women’s rights, liberalism, civil rights, relations with Israel, etc. On the other hand, Muhammad Morsi, the President of Egypt, who ran for president as the candidate of the “Freedom and Justice Party” – the political party of the Muslim Brotherhood movement in Egypt – advocates for a moderate and tolerant policy on the exact same topics.   So, the Muslim…

Egypt’s New Foreign Policy

July 30, 2012 February 3, 2012 Avi publishes an article Is the Israel Egypt Peace Treaty in Jeopardy?  in which he accurately foresees the foreign policy of Egypt’s new rule. Here is an excerpt from the article: “… the current Saudi-Egyptian alliance is crucial for Egypt…and Egypt is keenly aware of its dependence on Saudi support…the Saudis expect Egypt to restore their sovereignty in the Sinai Peninsula – the sooner the better – and to avoid events that could endanger the Saudi’s interests  …Egypt’s dependence on the support of the international community, and mostly the US, is deepening  …some African states are demanding that the agreement concerning the split of the water from Nile River be revised in a way…

Shalom!

Welcome to my blog. I am an independent Middle East Strategic Intelligence Analyst, and lecturer specializing in the current affairs of the Arab and Muslim world and their impact on Israel and the region. I am the Fellow of Intelligence and Middle East Affairs for the Eisenhower Institute Eisenhower Institute, where among other responsibilities I leads a year-long program entitled “Inside the Middle East – Intelligence Perspectives,” designed to ensure that the next generation to be in positions of influence in the United States will have a more intimate understanding of the Middle East and will apply methods of critical thinking regarding Middle East Affairs in a way that will result in a more accurate reading the Middle East reality and…

Hezbollah Sunni Tension Rises

July 15, 2012 by Avi Melamed March 1, 2012, Avi publishes and article Is war in the Middle East inevitable? In which he outlines the increasing probability of a violent collision between Hezbollah and the Sunnis in Syria and Lebanon following the downfall of the Assad regime in Syria.  “…The majority of Syrians are Sunnis. They will never forget nor forgive Hassan Nasrallah for supporting the cold-blooded massacre of more than 8,000 (and counting) Syrians, most of whom are Sunnis. With Assad gone, Hezbollah may very well find itself confronting massively armed, enraged Sunni militants at the same time its weapons supply route is cut…Hezbollah could very well find itself fighting for its life—and the Lebanese will once again find…

Who is Nasrallah Really Afraid Of?

August 14, 2011 Avi Melamed wrote in his article The Middle East: Where Rhetoric is Rarely Reality: “…Nasrallah has been hiding underground since 2006. And he will keep on hiding.  Nasrallah knows that once he ventures out in public he will be killed.  Not by Israel, but rather by Sunni radical groups in Lebanon.“ July 3, 2012 the President of Israel declares that Nasrallah hides in his bunker because he is afraid of the Lebanese. Not because of Israel.

Nasrallah is finished in the Arab World

August 14, 2011 Avi wrote an article The Middle East:  Where Rhetoric is Rarely Reality on the impending crash of Hezbollah’s image in the Arab world.  “…The growing intervention of Iran in the internal affairs of Arab States; the public and practical support that Iran and Hezbollah provide the Assad government that brutally oppresses the uprising of the Syrian people; the increasing threats that Iran makes towards its Arab neighbors in the Gulf area; and of course the Tribunal’s report – all these events increase the feelings of resentment among Sunni Arabs towards the Shiites, and the animosity of Arab states toward Iran and its proxy Hezbollah.”  May 1, 2012 the president of Tunisia in a formal interview declares that Nasrallah…

Cruel Iraq Percolating Democracy

March 15, 2012      by Avi Melamed   According to recent reports, at least fourteen teenagers – some argue that the number is actually much higher – were murdered inIraq.  Most of the youths were stoned and others were shot.  They were targeted because they were labeled as “Satan worshipers.” These teenagers are known in Arabic as “emo” – a shortcut for the English word “emotional.”   Their apparel and codes of dress are clearly inspired by Western heavy metal music and culture. An anonymous entity entitled “The Rage Companies” published a leaflet which included the names of twenty-two other Iraqi teenagers.  The “Rage Companies” demand that these twenty-two individuals sever their connection with the “emo” group otherwise they too will be…

Sr. Hamas Leaders Declare Hamas will take no part in a war between Israel and Iran

March 1, 2012 Avi publishes an article Is war in the Middle east Inevitable? in which he discusses the impact of the events in Syria on the radical militant Axis of Resistance. “…The Axis of Resistance is one of Iran’s major assets.  This massive military capability is a major card the Iranian regime plays when it comes to its nuclear military program.  In its talks with the West and the International Community, the regime makes the following crystal clear: if its’ vital interests are jeopardized, Iran has the ability to create an immediate, massive eruption in the region by ordering Hezbollah and Hamas to use their arsenals to attack Israel. What is critical for the West to understand is that there…

Is War in the Middle East Inevitable?

February 25, 2012 by Avi Melamed The Iranian nuclear military program and the possibility of a massive military collision in the Middle East are clearly occupying the world’s attention. These concerns are not groundless.  However, is military confrontation inevitable? In this article, I would like to bring your attention to the fact that at this specific moment, due to the…

Inside Hezbollah’s Private Dominion

February 14, 2012 by Avi Melamed The southern quarter of Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, is known by the name Al Dahya Al Janobiya.  Since the 1980’s Al Dahya has been primarily populated by Shiites most of whom came to Beirut from the southern part of Lebanon and the  Beqa’a area (a 120 km long and narrow valley in the center of Lebanon). Al Dahya is also the nerve center of  Hezbollah.  Al Dahya is the home of Hezbollah’s central headquarters as well as their main offices, thousands of Hezbollah members live there, including its senior leadership.  Al Dahya, like southern Lebanon and the Beqa’a area, is completely under the control of Hezbollah.  Practically speaking, the State of Lebanon has…

The Arab Awakening: An Era of New Slogans

November 8, 2011 by Avi Melamed In my video and accompanying article on the “The Arab Awakening” (published last month), I presented my thoughts regarding the recent events in the Arab world, labeled by many, as “The Arab Spring.” One of my observations was that these events marked the beginning of an era of new slogans in the Arab world and a departure from the old ones. One of the slogans I discussed was “Islam is the Solution” – the motto of the Muslim Brotherhood movement since its establishment in Egypt in the late 1920’s.  You can see this phrase written on walls, printed on bumper stickers and plastered on street signs all over the Arab world. Following the downfall of the…

Israel – Hamas Prisoner Swap Deal: Arab Perspectives

  October 30, 2011 by Avi Melamed About 3 years ago, Khaled Mashal (also known as Abu Walid) the leader of Hamas in Damascus, received a phone call from Omar Suleiman, the head of the Egyptian General Intelligence Service. “I have some good news, Abu Walid,” said Suleiman, “Israel has agreed to release one thousand Palestinian prisoners in return for (the Israeli soldier that was abducted by Hamas in June 2006) Gilad Shalit.” Mashal was ecstatic! “Great news!” he said “You have the green light from me to close the deal.” Omar Suleiman informed Hosni Mubarak, Egypt’s president at the time, and Mubarak in turn, informed Bashar al-Assad, the president of Syria. Assad was furious. “Mashal is not in a…

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