Avi Melamed.

Tag: Arab World

Vienna, Aden, Damascus

July 23rd, 2015 Vienna, Aden, Damascus By Avi Melamed The signing of the Vienna agreement on July 14, 2015 between Iran and the “Five Plus One” states, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom United States, plus Germany regarding the Iranian nuclear program was not surprising. The Mullah regime desperately needed an agreement and the United States President, Barrack Obama wanted – critics of the agreement add that he desperately wanted – an agreement. Some argue it is a bad deal, others argue it is a good deal; some see both positive as well as negative aspects of the agreement. There should have, and could have, been a much better agreement. The West had a much stronger hand than the Iranians.…

Crisis in Yemen: Significant Milestone

March 30, 2015  Crisis in Yemen: Significant Milestone by Avi Melamed   In October 2014 I published an article entitled “Sixty Six Egyptian Fisherman, Yemen, and Instability in The Middle East” in which I said: The events in the fall of 2014 would result in increasing instability in the Middle East The developments in Yemen at that time would have serious regional ramifications Saudi Arabia and Egypt would not tolerate the deteriorating situation in Yemen threatening their strategic interests My predictions have been fully realized: On March 25th, a military coalition of the Arab Gulf states (except for Oman) plus Jordan, Morocco, and Sudan, and one non-Arab state (Pakistan), led by Saudi Arabia, launched aerial attacks on Houthi Shiite tribe…

Yarmuk Movie: Kill the Messenger

March 1  2015 Yarmuk Movie: Kill the Messenger by Avi Melamed The article you are about to read was actually written in April 2014. I wrote the article following an eight-minute fiction movie called Yarmuk that was published on YouTube in March 2014. The movie was directed and produced by an Arab director and actor named Muhammad Bakri. The movie was removed from YouTube shortly after it was posted, and – unfortunately before I could publish my article. My attempts to find the movie were unsuccessful therefore I decided not to publish my article. Until now. These very days, after a long search and research, I found the movie. What is the movie’s background? Why was it removed and by…

Bewildering American Move – Operation Protective Edge

Why was US Secretary of State John Kerry’s latest cease fire proposal rejected by Egypt, Israel, the Palestinian Authority and Saudi Arabia? Another misstep on the part of the US Administration stemming from a misreading of the Middle Eastern Map, results in the US government scrambling to do damage control. As the Middle East goes through increasing turbulence, stemming from the enormous challenges the region is confronting, it is critical that the West, especially the United States, understand how to foster and cultivate stability in the face of those that are determined to foment instability.   Avi Melamed, former Israeli Senior Official on Arab Affairs and former Intelligence Official and educator, is today an Independent Middle East Strategic Intelligence Analyst,…

Avi Melamed US Lecture Tour Spring 2014

A New Middle East Requires a New Understanding. Events of an historic scale are rocking the Middle East. I have spent many years of my life in the streets of the Arab world.  I have watched the Arab Awakening evolve and erupt from the inside. The Middle East in changing before our very eyes, the landscape is shifting and changing every day, and can drastically change any minute now. My upcoming US lecture tour will help you understand the present and navigate the future. Egypt, the biggest and most important Arab State, is embroiled a fierce battle over its identity. Iraq, Libya, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen are disintegrating in a bloody and violent process. Lebanon, once known as the Paris…

A Senior Iranian Revolutionary Guard was Killed in Syria – Intelligence Bulletin

 ******* Intelligence Bulletin Information Date:      June 9 2013 Event Date:      End of May 2013 Information Item:      A Senior Iranian Revolutionary Guard was Killed in Syria Information Platform:      Various Source:      Various Source Reliability:      Unknown Information Validity:      Unknown Relevant Information:      An Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRG) Senior Officer named Amir Rida Ali Zadeh was killed at the end of May during fighting in the area of Damascus. His death was kept a secret. No further information regarding this person was disclosed. Assessment:      The information is not verified by other sources and the source’s reliability is unknown. Accumulating reports indicate that Iranian Revolutionary Guards are engaged in combat in Syria, mostly in the area of Damascus, Homs, Al-Qusayr and Aleppo. Iranian Revolutionary Guard officers and specialists – mostly in the field of…

The Spider Caught in its Own Web

May 31, 2013 by Avi Melamed Since late 2011, I have been outlining a scenario in which Hezbollah in Lebanon would find itself in a violent confrontation with a Sunni Syrian-Lebanese crescent (links to articles on the subject are at the bottom). These very days – right in front of our eyes – it is happening… On Sunday May 26 three rockets were fired at Al Dahya Al Janobiya in the southern quarter of Beirut – the capital of Lebanon. As many of you may remember from my article Inside Hezbollah’s Private Dominion (February 2012), Al Dahya Al Janobiya is the major stronghold of Hezbollah in Lebanon. The attack on Hezbollah’s stronghold is not a surprise. Syrian rebels and Lebanese…

The Syrian Stalingrad

******* Intelligence Bulletin Information Date:     May 22 2013 Event Date:     Now and Ongoing Information Item:     The Syrian Stalingrad Information Platform:     Various Source:     Varied Source Reliability:     Reliable Information Validity:     Valid Relevant Information:     In October 2012 I wrote an article entitled “Pay Attention to the Battle over Al-Qusayr in Syria” in this article I explained the strategic importance of the city of Al-Qusayr and the surrounding area. These very days, after months of fierce fighting over the city and its outskirts, Assad’s troops, together with Hezbollah, Iranian soldiers and Iraqi Shiite militants are launching a massive attack on Al-Qusayr. They are indiscriminately bombing the city with rockets and…

Syrian Refugees Intelligence Bulletin

Intelligence Bulletin ***** Information Date:  Accumulating Event Date:  Ongoing Information Item:  The Sexual Exploitation of Refugee Syrian Girls Information Platform:  Varied Source:  Varied Source reliability:  Reliable Information validity:  Valid Relevant information:  One of the outcomes of the war in Syria is a huge influx of Syrian refugees both inside and outside Syria. According to UN official figures, the number of Syrian refugees in the region (mostly in Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey) is about 1.5 Million and the number of Syrian refugees inside Syria is around 2 Million. The real numbers are probably much higher.Syrian refugees are in a desperate situation. men from different parts of the Arab world are taking advantage of that. they offer families between $50 and $500…

Iraq is on the Verge of a Violent Sunni–Shiite Confrontation

******* Immediate Intelligence Bulletin Information Date: March 20, 2013 Event Date: March 2013 Information: Iraq is on the verge of a violent Sunni–Shiite confrontation Information Details: According to varied neutral sources, the Sunni tribal leaders in the Al-Anbar province in western Iraq ordered their members to arm themselves immediately in order to confront Iraqi military forces heading towards the Al-Anbar area. Information Platform: Varied Platform Reliability: Varies Source: Neutral, Varied Source Reliability: Unknown Information Validity: Unknown Relevant Information: The majority of Iraqis are Shiites. The Al-Anbar region in western Iraq is the major stronghold of Sunnis in Iraq. Sunni-Shiite relations in Iraq are characterized by a long history of animosity and violence. Accumulating information indicates a growing rage among Iraqi…

Did A Senior Hezbollah Commander Escape an Assassination Plot?

February 7, 2013  By Avi Melamed According to unconfirmed information, from a source I evaluate as fairly reliable, Wafiq Safa, the head of the “Central Liaison and Cooperation Committee” of Hezbollah in Lebanon, was injured at the beginning of the month in an explosion in the Sulm neighborhood in Beirut. It is not clear if it was an assassination plot, but there are reasons to affirm the suspicions. Safa, born in 1960 in the town of Zibdin in South Lebanon, is the brother-in-law of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah. For years he was Hezbollah’s “man in the shadows” – his name was “The Ghost.” He is considered to be a member of the most powerful inner-circle within the organization.…

Operation Pillar of Defense: Geopolitical Ramifications Part 2

November 29, 2012 Operation Pillar of Defense: Geopolitical Ramifications – Part 2 Hamas’ Cruel Dilemma In my previous article Operation Pillar of Defense: Geopolitical Ramifications – Part 1 , Rocket Attacks on Israel: Sirens in Israeli Cities Must Echo in the West I described the militant axis nurtured and operated by the Iranian regime known as “the axis of Resistance.”  I outlined the way Hamas has been dragged – in the latest round and in previous instances – by other Palestinian terror organizations in the Gaza Strip into escalating their attacks on Israeli targets.  I also gave an overview of the process of growing tensions between Hamas and other groups in the Gaza Strip and the ramifications of that process…

Drone Games

October 19, 2012 by Avi Melamed On October 11 I published an article Mysterious Blasts as Hezbollah Sinks in the Syrian Mud.  This article is a follow-up to that piece. On October 6 Hezbollah, a Lebanese organization, launched a drone which infiltrated southern Israel.  The drone was shot down by the Israeli Air Force. On October 11, in a televized speech, Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, formally claimed responsibility for the incident.  In addition, he announced that the drone was manufactured by Iran and assembled in Lebanon.  Over the course of the first few days following the incident, Iranian web sites associated with the IRG (The Iranian Revolutionary Guards) hinted that Iran was involved in the launch, and described it…

Mysterious Blasts as Hezbollah Sinks in the Syrian Mud

October 11, 2012 by Avi Melamed Nasrallah made a speech tonight (Israel time) in which he claimed responsibility for the launching of the unmanned drone that was intercepted by the Israeli Air Force after infiltrating Israel on October 6th.  This speech was clearly an attempt to repair Hezbollah’s damaged image and to regain popularity in the Arab world by using the “defying Israel card.” First and foremost, Nasrallah’s speech reflects the deepening crisis Hezbollah is mired in as the organization sinks in the Syrian mud. Hezbollah’s active involvement in the war in Syria is no longer a secret.  Hezbollah militants openly fight side by side with Assad’s troops against the Free Syrian Army. Hezbollah’s troubles are accumulating. Since May 2012…

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