The Middle East is a chain of links. Everything is connected. Understanding the links is critical to developing an accurate picture of reality. I wanted to take the opportunity to provide a contextualized snapshot of the region along with my predictions of what we can expect in the short term. I hope you find this brief overview helpful.   Lebanon…

In Part 1 of my three-part analysis, “Alarms on the Lebanese – Israel Border might be Last Wake-up Call for Western Leaders” (September 11, 2019), I explained and contextualized the events of September 1, 2019, on the Israeli Lebanese border. In Part 2,  “Alarms on the Lebanese – Israeli Border (Part 2) Iran’s Hegemonic Modus Operandi” (September 13, 2019) I…

The September 14th Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia is a moment of truth for the West and its Middle East allies.  The West is clearly eager to avoid a direct confrontation with Iran. Some argue – at all costs. On the other hand, the Arab Gulf monarchies, Jordan, and Israel are determined to thwart Iran's hegemonic vision at all costs. Because…

As the countdown toward a US-Iran collision continues, the Mullah regime particularly relies on the American media who are overwhelmingly and quite shockingly biased - taking Iran's side,” wrote Lebanese American Political Analyst, Raghida Dergham, on May 17. “The Western media leads a massive campaign targeting Saudi Arabia, yet totally ignores Iran's regional expansion policy in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and…

FEBRUARY 12, 2019 Poland Summit Strives for Stability in the Middle East (as published in The Atlantic Council IranSource) BY AVI MELAMED US and Poland flags (US State Department) The Trump administration accurately identified the Iranian threat and has, on some significant issues, acted accordingly—including the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the application of…

January 24, 2019    INFORMATION: Another significant direct Israeli-Iranian military collision took place in Syria on January 20th and 21st, 2019. On January 20th the Israeli Air Force carried out an attack in the area of Damascus. Later that day, an Iranian made mid-range surface-to-surface missile targeting northern Israel was launched from within Syria. The missile was apparently launched directly…

January 18, 2018 Protests in Iran: The Mullah’s Regime Autumn Intelligence Report (To Download a PDF of this Report Please Click Here)   Information: Public protests which began in the city of Mashhad on December 28, 2017 ignited a wave of mass demonstrations in dozens of cities across Iran, including in major cities such as Isfahan and Tehran. To date,…

July 2, 2017   In this video Avi Melamed analyses the latest US moves in the Middle East  

Click Here for PDF of this Report June 27, 2017 Intelligence Report The Concept of Greater Jordan and the Creation of a Safe-Zone in South Syria  Information: Reportedly in June 2017 the United States, Russia and Jordan signed a memorandum establishing a “Safe-Zone” in southern Syria – a 30-kilometer-wide strip in Syria running parallel to the Jordanian border. The exact…

Click here for PDF of this Article January 19, 2017     A Growing Whirlpool of Violence: The Middle Eastern Legacy of Barack Obama by Avi Melamed   On June 4, 2009 the President of the United States, Barack Obama, delivered a speech at Cairo University entitled “A New Beginning” in which he called for the opening of a new…

January 7, 2017 Lebanon: No Land for Beginning Politicians by Avi Melamed   On October 31st 2016, 81-year-old, General Michele ‘Aoun, former Chief of Staff of the Lebanese Armed Forces was nominated by the Lebanese Parliament as the new President of Lebanon. In December 2016, a new government was formed in Lebanon under the leadership of the Prime Minister of…

  July 24th, 2016 Intelligence Bulletin Do the Syrian Rebels in the Golan Heights have Surface-to-Surface Missiles? Background: Similar to other areas in Syria, the Syrian District of Quneitra, which borders the Israeli part of the Golan Heights is a stage for ongoing clashes, of varying levels of intensity and frequency, between different Syrian Rebel groups on the one side,…

Published in Inside Sources in May 4, 2016 Restoring U.S. Influence in the Middle East by Avi Melamed The United States is viewed in the Middle East today as a declining power with a diminished ability to influence events and lead. The Arab states, Turkey, and Israel are disturbed by U.S. policy in the Middle East—primarily America’s extended hand towards Iran,…

July 23rd, 2015 Vienna, Aden, Damascus By Avi Melamed The signing of the Vienna agreement on July 14, 2015 between Iran and the “Five Plus One” states, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom United States, plus Germany regarding the Iranian nuclear program was not surprising. The Mullah regime desperately needed an agreement and the United States President, Barrack Obama wanted – critics of the agreement add that he desperately wanted – an agreement. Some argue it is a bad deal, others argue it is a good deal; some see both positive as well as negative aspects of the agreement. There should have, and could have, been a much better agreement. The West had a much stronger hand than the Iranians.…