Avi Melamed.

Category: Palestinians.

מבצע “צוק איתן”:אור בקצה המנהרה

This article is entitled Operation Protective Edge The Light at the End of the Tunnel: The Prospects for a Positive Strategic Change for Israelis and Palestinians. I will send an English version PLUS a summary video over the next two days, thank you for your patience  22 יולי 2014   מבצע “צוק איתן” : אור בקצה המנהרה סיכוי לשינוי אסטרטגי חיובי עבור ישראל והפלסטינים אבי מלמד הדברים הללו נכתבים בעיצומו של מבצע “צוק איתן” אבל כבר עתה ניתן לקבוע לדעתי כי למבצע “צוק איתן” יש פוטנציאל להציע שינוי אסטרטגי חיובי מבחינתה של ישראל – וגם מבחינתם של הפלסטינים. מדוע אני חושב כך? מבצע “צוק איתן” שונה – בנסיבותיו, במהלכו, בתוצאותיו ובהשלכותיו המיידיות והאפשריות – בהשוואה לסבבי אלימות קודמים בין ישראל…

Muqawama, Money, Missiles

July 15, 2014 Muqawama, Money, Missiles By Avi Melamed The current round of violence between Israel and Hamas is caused by the simplest reason imaginable, yet very few are aware of it. MONEY. Let’s start with a clarification. Today, the real boss in the Gaza Strip, is a massively armed military force of about ten to fifteen thousand Palestinians known as the Ezzedeen Al-Qassam Brigades. Ezzedeen Al-Qassam is often presented as the military wing of Hamas – the rulers of the Gaza Strip. However, that definition should be revised to more accurately reflect the current reality. Today, the militia – the Ezzedeen Al-Qassam Brigades, who rule the Gaza Strip – have a political wing, named Hamas. It is the Ezzedeen…

The War in Syria – A Mutual Chokehold

May 7, 2014   The War in Syria – A Mutual Chokehold By Avi Melamed Pay attention to the Syrian town of Tfail. Tfail is a Lebanese enclave located in the Al-Kalmun mountain range in Syria about a mile away from the Lebanese border. It is a town of about 5,000 people – all Lebanese citizens (though the town is located inside Syria) – the majority of whom are Sunnis. Reportedly, following the recent battles in the region, dozens of thousands of Syrians fleeing the war in Syria found refuge on the outskirts of Tfail. Hezbollah argues that these refugees are not civilians, but rather Syrian rebels who fled following the recent fighting in the area of the Al-Kalmun. Reportedly,…

Avi Melamed US Lecture Tour Spring 2014

A New Middle East Requires a New Understanding. Events of an historic scale are rocking the Middle East. I have spent many years of my life in the streets of the Arab world.  I have watched the Arab Awakening evolve and erupt from the inside. The Middle East in changing before our very eyes, the landscape is shifting and changing every day, and can drastically change any minute now. My upcoming US lecture tour will help you understand the present and navigate the future. Egypt, the biggest and most important Arab State, is embroiled a fierce battle over its identity. Iraq, Libya, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen are disintegrating in a bloody and violent process. Lebanon, once known as the Paris…

Soldier on the Chessboard

January 9, 2014  by Avi Melamed Lebanese authorities announced that Majid Al-Majid (his full name is Majid bin Muhammad Majid al-Qahtani), the leader of the Abdullah Azzam Brigade Jihadist group and the top Al-Qaeda commander in Lebanon – died after being arrested. The Abdullah Azzam Brigade is a Sunni Islamic militant group affiliated with the Global Jihad movement and Al-Qaeda with cells in countries throughout the Arab world. It was created in 2009 by a Saudi militant named Saleh bin Abdullah Al-Qar’awi AKA Al-Seif Al-Bater (“The Cutting Sword”). In Saudi Arabia they operate under the name of The Companies of Yusuf al ‘Uyayri (or Al-Ubeiri), named after an Al-Qaeda senior leader who was killed in Saudi Arabia in 2003. The…

Are we Facing an Immediate Outbreak of Violence in the Gaza Strip?

(this article was published yesterday)  ******* Intelligence Bulletin Information Date:    October 22, 2013 Event Date:     October 22, 2013 Information Item:    Are we facing an immediate outbreak of violence in the Gaza  Strip? Information Platform:    Varied Source:    Varied Source Reliability:    Unknown Spring:    Hamas, Islamic Jihad in Palestine (IJP) official platforms Spring Reliability:    Reliable Information Validity:    Valid Relevant Information:    A Palestinian militant named Muhammad Rabah A’si was killed today in a clash with the IDF. A’si was killed while hiding in a cave in the West Bank. Reportedly, A’si was the planner of an attack on an Israeli bus in the city of Tel Aviv (November 21, 2012). Following his killing, the Ezzedeen Al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, formally announced that A’si…

Are we Facing an Immediate Outbreak of Violence in the Gaza Strip?

 ******* Intelligence Bulletin Information Date:    October 22, 2013 Event Date:     October 22, 2013 Information Item:    Are we facing an immediate outbreak of violence in the Gaza  Strip? Information Platform:    Varied Source:    Varied Source Reliability:    Unknown Spring:    Hamas, Islamic Jihad in Palestine (IJP) official platforms Spring Reliability:    Reliable Information Validity:    Valid Relevant Information:    A Palestinian militant named Muhammad Rabah A’si was killed today in a clash with the IDF. A’si was killed while hiding in a cave in the West Bank. Reportedly, A’si was the planner of an attack on an Israeli bus in the city of Tel Aviv (November 21, 2012). Following his killing, the Ezzedeen Al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, formally announced that A’si was one of their members.…

Are the Next Muslim Anti-Western Protests on the Horizon?

 August 9, 2013  by Avi Melamed   Arab media platforms today (August 9 2013) reported about a Volkswagen advertisement. The scene takes place in what seems to be a European urban environment (the car’s steering wheel is located on the right hand side of the car). The ad features a person parking a car that resembles a Polo Volkswagen next to a coffee shop. The person is wearing a keffiyeh – an Arab traditional headdress – around his neck. It turns out the man is a suicide bomber; he detonates himself inside the car, yet the car stays intact. The video concludes with the logo of Volkswagen and the phrase beneath says: “Polo. Small But Tough.” The video sub-title says…

A True Story About a Package…and the Middle East

August 5, 2013  By Avi Melamed On the occasion of the month of Ramadan, the Islamic Jihad in Palestine (IJP) and the Palestinian organization the Popular Resistance Committees (PRC) announced the distribution of 40,000 food packages to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. In a Public Relations campaign, both organizations expressed gratitude to the Islamic Republic of Iran – known as a major sponsor of both – for funding the food packages. As part of the campaign, trucks loaded with the thousands of food packages and decorated with Iranian flags were displayed in the Gaza Strip. The packages carried the logo of the Imam Khomeini Welfare Institution also known by the name Al-Amdad. Al-Amdad is a charitable foundation under the authority…

Clashes in Sidon Intelligence Bulletin

******* Intelligence Bulletin Information Date:     June 23 2013 Event Date:     June 23 2013 Information Item:     Clashes in Sidon, Lebanon Information Platform:     Various Source:     Varied Source Reliability:     Reliable Spring:     Local Sources in Sidon Spring Reliability:     Reliable Information Validity:     Confirmed Relevant Information:     On June 18 armed clashes broke out in the area of Abra in the city of Sidon – the biggest city in southern Lebanon. Reportedly, the factors involved in the fighting are supporters of Sunni Preacher Sheikh Ahmed Al-Assir on the one hand, and militants affiliated with the Lebanese Shiite organization, Hezbollah, on the other hand. Sheikh Ahmed Al-Assir is a Sunni preacher known for his tough line criticizing Hezbollah. Following the involvement of Hezbollah in the war in Syria,…

The Alliance of Fear in Lebanon

June 6, 2013 by Avi Melamed As the war in Syria percolates into Lebanon and Iraq, turning into a massive Sunni-Shiite collision, it is worthwhile to take a close look at another factor in Lebanon – The Palestinians. Some half a million Palestinians (who are all Sunni) live in Lebanon. They live in large refugee camps scattered throughout most of Lebanon. The biggest one is Ain Al-Hilweh, located next to the city of Sidon, the biggest city in southern Lebanon, which is also predominately Sunni. Other large camps are located in the vicinity of Beirut as well as in the area surrounding Tripoli, the biggest city in northern Lebanon, which similar to Sidon, is also predominately Sunni. The scenario of…

The Spider Caught in its Own Web

May 31, 2013 by Avi Melamed Since late 2011, I have been outlining a scenario in which Hezbollah in Lebanon would find itself in a violent confrontation with a Sunni Syrian-Lebanese crescent (links to articles on the subject are at the bottom). These very days – right in front of our eyes – it is happening… On Sunday May 26 three rockets were fired at Al Dahya Al Janobiya in the southern quarter of Beirut – the capital of Lebanon. As many of you may remember from my article Inside Hezbollah’s Private Dominion (February 2012), Al Dahya Al Janobiya is the major stronghold of Hezbollah in Lebanon. The attack on Hezbollah’s stronghold is not a surprise. Syrian rebels and Lebanese…

Rockets Expert Killed in Israeli Air Strike in Gaza

******* Intelligence Bulletin Information Date: April 30 2013 Event Date: April 30 2013 Information Item: Rockets Expert Killed in Israeli Air Strike in Gaza Information Platform: Media Source: Variety Source Reliability: Reliable Information Validity: Valid Relevant Information: The militant killed was involved in recent rocket attacks on Israeli communities. A Salafi Jihadist group known as Majlis Shurah Al-mujaheedin – Aknaf Beit Almakdas claimed responsibility for these attacks. According to unconfirmed information, the militant killed was member of a Salafi –Jihadist group called Kataeb Seif Al-Islam (Palestine) it is the first time I have come across the name of this alleged group. Other information suggests that the militant killed was in fact a freelance expert on explosives who offer his services…

Intelligence Bulletin March 12, 2013 Clashes in Ain al-Hilweh, a Palestinian Refugee Camp in South Lebanon

******* Intelligence Bulletin March 12, 2013 Information Date: March 12, 2013 Event Date: March 11, 2013 Information Item: Clashes in Ain al-Hilweh, a Palestinian Refugee Camp in South Lebanon. Information Details: According to my sources clashes broke out during the night of March 11 and continued into the next day in a neighborhood called Ras al-Ahmar in the Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp. Reportedly, the clashes were a result of an attempted assassination of a senior leader of the Sunni Jihadist militant group known as Fatah al-Islam. The clashes resulted in a few injuries. Source: Media Platform, Neutral Sources, Others Source Reliability: Reliable Information Validity: Valid Relevant information: One person injured in the clashes – the apparent target of the assassination attempt – is identified as…

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