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Avi Melamed.

Category: Palestinians.

Harakat Al Najuba

A Prediction Materialized: Iranian Proxy Vows to “Fight to Liberate the Golan Heights”

Inside the Middle East – Intelligence Perspectives Intelligence Bulletin     March 14, 2017   A Prediction Materialized: Iranian Proxy Vows to “Fight to liberate the Golan Heights”   Information: In my January 2017 article “A Growing Whirlpool of Violence: The Middle East Legacy of Barack Obama “ I made the following prediction regarding the growing direct and indirect Iranian…

download As Sabeeren

Intelligence Report: Harakat as-Sabeeren Nasran li-Filastin in the Gaza Strip

July 1st, 2016 by Avi Melamed General Background: The Islamic Jihad Movement in Palestine, Harakat al-Jihād al-Islāmi fi Filastīn, most widely known as the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) is a Sunni Islamic group, established in the late 1970’s. The PIJ is a Palestinian organization inspired by Jihadi Islamist Militant ideology. The goal of Jihadi Islamist Militant ideology is to create,…

forbes_1200x1200

A Realistic Solution To The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Here is an article I had published in Forbes…. A generation has passed since the signing of the Oslo Accords between Israel and the Palestinians. The Oslo Accords were guided by the concept that the two-state solution would finally resolve the conflict—but two decades later, Israelis and Palestinians remain caught in a sad, frustrating and vicious cycle that must be…

inside-sources

Restoring U.S. Influence in the Middle East

Published in Inside Sources in May 4, 2016 Restoring U.S. Influence in the Middle East by Avi Melamed The United States is viewed in the Middle East today as a declining power with a diminished ability to influence events and lead. The Arab states, Turkey, and Israel are disturbed by U.S. policy in the Middle East—primarily America’s extended hand towards Iran,…

NACHAL OZ, ISR - JAN 03:Israeli soldiers during the  first land incursion into Gaza strip  during cast lead operation on Jan 03 2009.

“Israel exposed a tunnel from Gaza to Israeli community east of Gaza Strip” – Intelligence Bulletin – April 16th, 2016

Intelligence Bulletin – April 16th, 2016 Date of Event: Current Date Event Reported: April 15, 2016 Date Information Received: April 16, 2016 Information Item: According to Arab sources, Israel Defense Forces exposed a massive tunnel from the Gaza Strip into an Israeli community east of the era of Khan Yunis in the southern part of the Gaza Strip. Reportedly, the…

The Hill

America Must Revolutionize its Understanding of the Middle East

Published on March 28, 2016, 04:00 pm on The Hill Congressional Blog The Hills Forum for Lawmakers and Policy Professionals For the past generation, America’s Middle East policy has primarily been a chronology of failures. The proactive promotion of democratization in Iraq, Egypt, and the Palestinian arena resulted in catastrophes. Leading from behind appears to have failed too, as chaos in the…

Vienna, Aden, Damascus

July 23rd, 2015 Vienna, Aden, Damascus By Avi Melamed The signing of the Vienna agreement on July 14, 2015 between Iran and the “Five Plus One” states, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom United States, plus Germany regarding the Iranian nuclear program was not surprising. The Mullah regime desperately needed an agreement and the United States President, Barrack Obama wanted – critics of the agreement add that he desperately wanted – an agreement. Some argue it is a bad deal, others argue it is a good deal; some see both positive as well as negative aspects of the agreement. There should have, and could have, been a much better agreement. The West had a much stronger hand than the Iranians.…

Yarmuk Movie: Kill the Messenger

March 1  2015 Yarmuk Movie: Kill the Messenger by Avi Melamed The article you are about to read was actually written in April 2014. I wrote the article following an eight-minute fiction movie called Yarmuk that was published on YouTube in March 2014. The movie was directed and produced by an Arab director and actor named Muhammad Bakri. The movie was removed from YouTube shortly after it was posted, and – unfortunately before I could publish my article. My attempts to find the movie were unsuccessful therefore I decided not to publish my article. Until now. These very days, after a long search and research, I found the movie. What is the movie’s background? Why was it removed and by…

Operation Protective Edge: Exiting to a New Space

This is the English version of the Hebrew article I posted yesterday. To read the Hebrew article please click here   August 28, 2014 Operation Protective Edge: Exiting to a new Space by Avi Melamed   In my article Operation Protective Edge – Light at the End of Tunnel that I published on July 22, 2014 during the very early stages of Operation Protective Edge, I made the following observations (click here to read the article which expands on the below points), This round offers both Israelis and Palestinians a chance for strategic positive shift Hamas’ strategy has reached a dead end Hamas’ modus operandi is substantially challenged Hamas will announce victory no matter what the reality is and the…

מבצע “צוק איתן” – יוצאים למרחב חדש

Below is an article – Operation Protective Edge: Exiting to a New Space. I will send the English out later today. 28/8/2014 מבצע “צוק איתן” – יוצאים למרחב חדש אבי מלמד   ב- 22 יולי, בשלביו המוקדמים של מבצע “צוק איתן”, פרסמתי מאמר בכותרת “האם יש אור בקצה המנהרה” ובו קבעתי את הדברים העיקריים הבאים א) סבב זה מציע פוטנציאל לשינוי אסטרטגי חיובי עבור ישראל והפלסטינים ב) הסבב מסמל את העובדה שדרכו של חמאס הגיעה למבוי סתום ג) כל מודל הפעולה של חמאס – הצבאי, התעמולתי הפוליטי, האידיאולוגי – נסדק קשות ביותר כתוצאה למערכה ד) חמאס יכריז נצחון בכל מקרה ללא קשר לתוצאות ולמציאות ה) בסיום הסבב יצאו ישראל והפלסטינים למרחב שונה מזה שהיו בו בתחילת הסבב לאחר 50 ימי…

Was the Military supreme commander of Izz A-Din Al-Qassam Brigades killed?

 August 21, 2014  Was the Military supreme commander of the Izz A-Din Al-Qassam Brigades killed?  At the time this report is being written, the fate of Mohammed Deif, the Supreme Commander of the Izz A-Din Al-Qaasam Brigades, who was targeted by an Israeli air raid on Tuesday night, August 19th, is yet unknown. Hamas’ formal spokesman announced that Israel’s attempt to kill Deif failed. On the other hand, a foreign news network quoted Israeli intelligence sources who argue that Deif was killed. A similar argument was made by some Palestinian sources as well. Perpetrating such an attack requires two mandatory conditions. One is up to date excellent, highly reliable operational intelligence in real time. The second condition is that the…

האם נהרג מחמד דף המפקד של גדודי עז א- דין אלקסאם

21 אוגוסט 2014   ************   אשגר מודיעין   ****************   האם נהרג מחמד דף המפקד של גדודי עז א- דין אלקסאם ?   נכון לכתיבת דווח זה לא ברור האם מחמד דף, מפקד גדודי עז א-דין אלקסאם, נהרג בתקיפת חה”א הישראלי בעזה ב -19 אוגוסט 2014. דוברים רשמיים של חמאס הודיעו כי דף לא נהרג בתקיפה. מצד שני, בדיווחים ברשתות תקשורת זרות נטען, כי חוגי מודיעין ישראלי מסרו באופן בלתי רשמי שדף ככל הנראה אכן נהרג בתקיפה. בפעולות של חיסול של יעדים המוגדרים כבעלי חשיבות ראשונה במעלה, חייבים להתקיים שני תנאים לביצוע: תנאי אחד הוא מודיעין מבצעי באיכות גבוהה ביותר בזמן אמת. התנאי השני הוא ההערכה שההישג הגלום בחיסול עולה על הנזקים ההסברתיים וההשלכות המשפטיות שעלולות לפגוע בישראל כתוצאה לפגיעה הבלתי…

אנחת הרווחה המפתיעה של חמאס

3 אוגוסט 2014 המשפט הבא יפתיע רבים. עם ההכרזה הרשמית על מותו בקרב של סגן הדר גולדין ז”ל, נשמעת אנחת רווחה גדולה: היא מגיעה לא פחות ולא יותר מאשר מחמאס עצמו. הקביעה הזו נשמעת כמעט הזויה. חמאס ראה ורואה בשבוי ישראלי נכס אסטרטגי שיאפשר לחמאס להשיג הישגים רבים ובראשם שחרור אסירים פלסטיניים הכלואים בישראל. במהלך הסבב הנוכחי סופג חמאס מהלומה עצומה. כל ניסיונותיו ליצור הישג צבאי משמעותי ו”תמונת נצחון” לא הצליחו. נכסיו האסטרטגיים הצבאיים – מערך הרקטות, מערכת המנהרות וכוחות העלית שלו נפגעו בצורה קשה ביותר. יש לו מאות רבות מאוד של הרוגים ופצועים. שכונות שלמות בעזה שהיו מעוזים מרכזיים של חמאס הפכו לאבק. הזעם ברחוב הערבי ובכלל זה בתוך עזה על האסון שהמיט חמאס על עזה גובר והולך. תקוותו…

Hamas Breathes a Sigh of Relief

August 3, 2014 Hamas Breathes a Sigh of Relief   by Avi Melamed The next line will probably astonish many people. When Israel formally announced that the IDF kidnapped Officer, Hadar Goldin, was pronounced dead – Hamas breathed a sigh of relief. This sentence seems totally crazy; it doesn’t make any sense. After all, Hamas’ strategic objective was, and is, to abduct an Israeli – preferably a soldier – that will be a bargaining chip for the release of Palestinians imprisoned in Israel. Hamas wishes to recreate the case of Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier who was abducted and held in captivity by Hamas for more than 5 years (2006-2011) who was released in exchange for more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners.…

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