Avi Melamed.

Category: Gaza Strip.

Operation Protective Edge: Exiting to a New Space

This is the English version of the Hebrew article I posted yesterday. To read the Hebrew article please click here   August 28, 2014 Operation Protective Edge: Exiting to a new Space by Avi Melamed   In my article Operation Protective Edge – Light at the End of Tunnel that I published on July 22, 2014 during the very early stages of Operation Protective Edge, I made the following observations (click here to read the article which expands on the below points), This round offers both Israelis and Palestinians a chance for strategic positive shift Hamas’ strategy has reached a dead end Hamas’ modus operandi is substantially challenged Hamas will announce victory no matter what the reality is and the…

מבצע “צוק איתן” – יוצאים למרחב חדש

Below is an article – Operation Protective Edge: Exiting to a New Space. I will send the English out later today. 28/8/2014 מבצע “צוק איתן” – יוצאים למרחב חדש אבי מלמד   ב- 22 יולי, בשלביו המוקדמים של מבצע “צוק איתן”, פרסמתי מאמר בכותרת “האם יש אור בקצה המנהרה” ובו קבעתי את הדברים העיקריים הבאים א) סבב זה מציע פוטנציאל לשינוי אסטרטגי חיובי עבור ישראל והפלסטינים ב) הסבב מסמל את העובדה שדרכו של חמאס הגיעה למבוי סתום ג) כל מודל הפעולה של חמאס – הצבאי, התעמולתי הפוליטי, האידיאולוגי – נסדק קשות ביותר כתוצאה למערכה ד) חמאס יכריז נצחון בכל מקרה ללא קשר לתוצאות ולמציאות ה) בסיום הסבב יצאו ישראל והפלסטינים למרחב שונה מזה שהיו בו בתחילת הסבב לאחר 50 ימי…

Was the Military supreme commander of Izz A-Din Al-Qassam Brigades killed?

 August 21, 2014  Was the Military supreme commander of the Izz A-Din Al-Qassam Brigades killed?  At the time this report is being written, the fate of Mohammed Deif, the Supreme Commander of the Izz A-Din Al-Qaasam Brigades, who was targeted by an Israeli air raid on Tuesday night, August 19th, is yet unknown. Hamas’ formal spokesman announced that Israel’s attempt to kill Deif failed. On the other hand, a foreign news network quoted Israeli intelligence sources who argue that Deif was killed. A similar argument was made by some Palestinian sources as well. Perpetrating such an attack requires two mandatory conditions. One is up to date excellent, highly reliable operational intelligence in real time. The second condition is that the…

אנחת הרווחה המפתיעה של חמאס

3 אוגוסט 2014 המשפט הבא יפתיע רבים. עם ההכרזה הרשמית על מותו בקרב של סגן הדר גולדין ז”ל, נשמעת אנחת רווחה גדולה: היא מגיעה לא פחות ולא יותר מאשר מחמאס עצמו. הקביעה הזו נשמעת כמעט הזויה. חמאס ראה ורואה בשבוי ישראלי נכס אסטרטגי שיאפשר לחמאס להשיג הישגים רבים ובראשם שחרור אסירים פלסטיניים הכלואים בישראל. במהלך הסבב הנוכחי סופג חמאס מהלומה עצומה. כל ניסיונותיו ליצור הישג צבאי משמעותי ו”תמונת נצחון” לא הצליחו. נכסיו האסטרטגיים הצבאיים – מערך הרקטות, מערכת המנהרות וכוחות העלית שלו נפגעו בצורה קשה ביותר. יש לו מאות רבות מאוד של הרוגים ופצועים. שכונות שלמות בעזה שהיו מעוזים מרכזיים של חמאס הפכו לאבק. הזעם ברחוב הערבי ובכלל זה בתוך עזה על האסון שהמיט חמאס על עזה גובר והולך. תקוותו…

Hamas Breathes a Sigh of Relief

August 3, 2014 Hamas Breathes a Sigh of Relief   by Avi Melamed The next line will probably astonish many people. When Israel formally announced that the IDF kidnapped Officer, Hadar Goldin, was pronounced dead – Hamas breathed a sigh of relief. This sentence seems totally crazy; it doesn’t make any sense. After all, Hamas’ strategic objective was, and is, to abduct an Israeli – preferably a soldier – that will be a bargaining chip for the release of Palestinians imprisoned in Israel. Hamas wishes to recreate the case of Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier who was abducted and held in captivity by Hamas for more than 5 years (2006-2011) who was released in exchange for more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners.…

Bewildering American Move – Operation Protective Edge

Why was US Secretary of State John Kerry’s latest cease fire proposal rejected by Egypt, Israel, the Palestinian Authority and Saudi Arabia? Another misstep on the part of the US Administration stemming from a misreading of the Middle Eastern Map, results in the US government scrambling to do damage control. As the Middle East goes through increasing turbulence, stemming from the enormous challenges the region is confronting, it is critical that the West, especially the United States, understand how to foster and cultivate stability in the face of those that are determined to foment instability.   Avi Melamed, former Israeli Senior Official on Arab Affairs and former Intelligence Official and educator, is today an Independent Middle East Strategic Intelligence Analyst,…

Avi Melamed Examines Possible Cease Fire in Operation Protective Edge

  Avi Melamed Examines Possible Cease Fire on July 25, 2014 – Day 18 of Operation Protective Edge   Avi Melamed, former Israeli Senior Official on Arab Affairs and former Intelligence Official and educator, is today an Independent Middle East Strategic Intelligence Analyst, Regional Expert and lecturer specializing in the current affairs of the Arab and Muslim world and their impact on Israel and the region. Avi is also the Rosenzwog Overseas Middle East expert at the Eisenhower Institute, Washington DC.

Operation Protective Edge – Light at the End of Tunnel

July 24, 2014   Operation Protective Edge – Light at the End of Tunnel A potential for a positive strategic change for Israelis and Palestinians by Avi Melamed   This article is written in the midst of a fierce war between Israel and Hamas which is taking place inside the Gaza Strip as well in Israeli cities and communities. As I write this I am fully aware of the fact that the situation is completely fluid. Any minute now something could happen that could change everything, and we may find ourselves in a totally different situation going in a completely different direction. It is very possible that the fighting will escalate. It is also possible that a cease fire will…

מבצע “צוק איתן”:אור בקצה המנהרה

This article is entitled Operation Protective Edge The Light at the End of the Tunnel: The Prospects for a Positive Strategic Change for Israelis and Palestinians. I will send an English version PLUS a summary video over the next two days, thank you for your patience  22 יולי 2014   מבצע “צוק איתן” : אור בקצה המנהרה סיכוי לשינוי אסטרטגי חיובי עבור ישראל והפלסטינים אבי מלמד הדברים הללו נכתבים בעיצומו של מבצע “צוק איתן” אבל כבר עתה ניתן לקבוע לדעתי כי למבצע “צוק איתן” יש פוטנציאל להציע שינוי אסטרטגי חיובי מבחינתה של ישראל – וגם מבחינתם של הפלסטינים. מדוע אני חושב כך? מבצע “צוק איתן” שונה – בנסיבותיו, במהלכו, בתוצאותיו ובהשלכותיו המיידיות והאפשריות – בהשוואה לסבבי אלימות קודמים בין ישראל…

Muqawama, Money, Missiles

July 15, 2014 Muqawama, Money, Missiles By Avi Melamed The current round of violence between Israel and Hamas is caused by the simplest reason imaginable, yet very few are aware of it. MONEY. Let’s start with a clarification. Today, the real boss in the Gaza Strip, is a massively armed military force of about ten to fifteen thousand Palestinians known as the Ezzedeen Al-Qassam Brigades. Ezzedeen Al-Qassam is often presented as the military wing of Hamas – the rulers of the Gaza Strip. However, that definition should be revised to more accurately reflect the current reality. Today, the militia – the Ezzedeen Al-Qassam Brigades, who rule the Gaza Strip – have a political wing, named Hamas. It is the Ezzedeen…

Avi Melamed US Lecture Tour Spring 2014

A New Middle East Requires a New Understanding. Events of an historic scale are rocking the Middle East. I have spent many years of my life in the streets of the Arab world.  I have watched the Arab Awakening evolve and erupt from the inside. The Middle East in changing before our very eyes, the landscape is shifting and changing every day, and can drastically change any minute now. My upcoming US lecture tour will help you understand the present and navigate the future. Egypt, the biggest and most important Arab State, is embroiled a fierce battle over its identity. Iraq, Libya, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen are disintegrating in a bloody and violent process. Lebanon, once known as the Paris…

Are we Facing an Immediate Outbreak of Violence in the Gaza Strip?

(this article was published yesterday)  ******* Intelligence Bulletin Information Date:    October 22, 2013 Event Date:     October 22, 2013 Information Item:    Are we facing an immediate outbreak of violence in the Gaza  Strip? Information Platform:    Varied Source:    Varied Source Reliability:    Unknown Spring:    Hamas, Islamic Jihad in Palestine (IJP) official platforms Spring Reliability:    Reliable Information Validity:    Valid Relevant Information:    A Palestinian militant named Muhammad Rabah A’si was killed today in a clash with the IDF. A’si was killed while hiding in a cave in the West Bank. Reportedly, A’si was the planner of an attack on an Israeli bus in the city of Tel Aviv (November 21, 2012). Following his killing, the Ezzedeen Al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, formally announced that A’si…

Are we Facing an Immediate Outbreak of Violence in the Gaza Strip?

 ******* Intelligence Bulletin Information Date:    October 22, 2013 Event Date:     October 22, 2013 Information Item:    Are we facing an immediate outbreak of violence in the Gaza  Strip? Information Platform:    Varied Source:    Varied Source Reliability:    Unknown Spring:    Hamas, Islamic Jihad in Palestine (IJP) official platforms Spring Reliability:    Reliable Information Validity:    Valid Relevant Information:    A Palestinian militant named Muhammad Rabah A’si was killed today in a clash with the IDF. A’si was killed while hiding in a cave in the West Bank. Reportedly, A’si was the planner of an attack on an Israeli bus in the city of Tel Aviv (November 21, 2012). Following his killing, the Ezzedeen Al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, formally announced that A’si was one of their members.…

Was a Senior Hamas Commander Killed in the Sinai Peninsula?

******* Intelligence Bulletin   Information Date:                          August 10, 2013               Event Date:                                      August 9, 2013 Information Item:                          Senior Hamas Commander killed in Sinai Peninsula? Information Platform:                   Arab Media Source:                                              Varied Source Reliability:                           Unknown Spring:                                               Unknown Spring Reliability:                            Unknown Information Validity:                    Not confirmed Relevant information:                   On August 9, 2013 a group of Jihadist militants were killed in an air raid in the area of Al-Arish in the northern part of the Sinai Peninsula. Apparently the group was finalizing preparations to launch rocket attacks probably targeting Israeli territory. Reports on Arab media platforms – though denied by formal Egyptian spokespersons – argue that the air raid was carried out by an Israeli drone and was coordinated with the Egyptian army who is…

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