October 2, 2017 Immediate Intelligence Bulletin A Prediction Materialized – PNA Restores Sovereignty in the Gaza Strip   On Monday, October 2, 2017 the Palestinian National Authority Government (PNA) restored its sovereignty in the Gaza Strip. A convoy of some 300 PNA officials, including the PNA Prime Minister, Rami Al-Hamdallah, PNA ministers, as well as PNA security officials arrived in the…

June 17th, 2017 Tasting the Bitter Pill of Reality: Hamas’ New Political Pact Information In August 2014 I published an article entitled “Operation Protective Edge: Exiting to a New Space” in which  I analyzed the ramifications of the summer of 2014 war between Hamas and Israel. In that piece I wrote ”…As a result, Hamas enters a long process where…

May 5, 2017   In case you missed it….   Avi Melamed discusses Trump visit and what US Administration should be focusing on…   Click on Screenshot below to see the show

July 1st, 2016 by Avi Melamed General Background: The Islamic Jihad Movement in Palestine, Harakat al-Jihād al-Islāmi fi Filastīn, most widely known as the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) is a Sunni Islamic group, established in the late 1970’s. The PIJ is a Palestinian organization inspired by Jihadi Islamist Militant ideology. The goal of Jihadi Islamist Militant ideology is to create,…

Here is an article I had published in Forbes…. A generation has passed since the signing of the Oslo Accords between Israel and the Palestinians. The Oslo Accords were guided by the concept that the two-state solution would finally resolve the conflict—but two decades later, Israelis and Palestinians remain caught in a sad, frustrating and vicious cycle that must be…

Intelligence Bulletin – April 16th, 2016 Date of Event: Current Date Event Reported: April 15, 2016 Date Information Received: April 16, 2016 Information Item: According to Arab sources, Israel Defense Forces exposed a massive tunnel from the Gaza Strip into an Israeli community east of the era of Khan Yunis in the southern part of the Gaza Strip. Reportedly, the…

Published in The Cipherbrief,  February 2016 by Avi Melamed   The collapse or weakening of state authority in different parts of the Middle East and Africa, together with growing inner challenges and chronic instability in large parts of the region and the widening and escalating Iranian-Arab power struggle, creates a chaotic environment militant Islamic groups exploit to expand their activities…

July 23rd, 2015 Vienna, Aden, Damascus By Avi Melamed The signing of the Vienna agreement on July 14, 2015 between Iran and the “Five Plus One” states, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom United States, plus Germany regarding the Iranian nuclear program was not surprising. The Mullah regime desperately needed an agreement and the United States President, Barrack Obama wanted – critics of the agreement add that he desperately wanted – an agreement. Some argue it is a bad deal, others argue it is a good deal; some see both positive as well as negative aspects of the agreement. There should have, and could have, been a much better agreement. The West had a much stronger hand than the Iranians.…

March 20, 2015 Pax Amer – Iran by Avi Melamed At the peak of its power and influence, the United States’ foreign policy was described as Pax Americana. That description was inspired by the term Pax Romana –”The Roman Peace” – the term that describes the period of time between 27 BC and 180 AD known as the “Golden Era” of the Great Roman Empire, a period characterized by prosperity and stability throughout the wide territory of the Roman Empire. *********** On June 4, 2009 the President of the United States, Barack Obama, delivered a speech at the University of Cairo entitled “A NEW BEGINNING” in which he called for the opening of a new page in the relations of…

January 19, 2015 A Significant Message by Avi Melamed   The Lebanese Shiite organization Hezbollah announced that six of its militants were killed on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights on January 18th. In addition, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards announced that an Iranian General was killed in the attack. Reportedly, the Iranian general was second-in-command of the Al-Quds Force,…

This is the English version of the Hebrew article I posted yesterday. To read the Hebrew article please click here   August 28, 2014 Operation Protective Edge: Exiting to a new Space by Avi Melamed   In my article Operation Protective Edge – Light at the End of Tunnel that I published on July 22, 2014 during the very early stages of Operation Protective Edge, I made the following observations (click here to read the article which expands on the below points), This round offers both Israelis and Palestinians a chance for strategic positive shift Hamas’ strategy has reached a dead end Hamas’ modus operandi is substantially challenged Hamas will announce victory no matter what the reality is and the…

Below is an article – Operation Protective Edge: Exiting to a New Space. I will send the English out later today. 28/8/2014 מבצע “צוק איתן” – יוצאים למרחב חדש אבי מלמד   ב- 22 יולי, בשלביו המוקדמים של מבצע “צוק איתן”, פרסמתי מאמר בכותרת “האם יש אור בקצה המנהרה” ובו קבעתי את הדברים העיקריים הבאים א) סבב זה מציע פוטנציאל לשינוי אסטרטגי חיובי עבור ישראל והפלסטינים ב) הסבב מסמל את העובדה שדרכו של חמאס הגיעה למבוי סתום ג) כל מודל הפעולה של חמאס – הצבאי, התעמולתי הפוליטי, האידיאולוגי – נסדק קשות ביותר כתוצאה למערכה ד) חמאס יכריז נצחון בכל מקרה ללא קשר לתוצאות ולמציאות ה) בסיום הסבב יצאו ישראל והפלסטינים למרחב שונה מזה שהיו בו בתחילת הסבב לאחר 50 ימי…

 August 21, 2014  Was the Military supreme commander of the Izz A-Din Al-Qassam Brigades killed?  At the time this report is being written, the fate of Mohammed Deif, the Supreme Commander of the Izz A-Din Al-Qaasam Brigades, who was targeted by an Israeli air raid on Tuesday night, August 19th, is yet unknown. Hamas’ formal spokesman announced that Israel’s attempt to kill Deif failed. On the other hand, a foreign news network quoted Israeli intelligence sources who argue that Deif was killed. A similar argument was made by some Palestinian sources as well. Perpetrating such an attack requires two mandatory conditions. One is up to date excellent, highly reliable operational intelligence in real time. The second condition is that the…

3 אוגוסט 2014 המשפט הבא יפתיע רבים. עם ההכרזה הרשמית על מותו בקרב של סגן הדר גולדין ז”ל, נשמעת אנחת רווחה גדולה: היא מגיעה לא פחות ולא יותר מאשר מחמאס עצמו. הקביעה הזו נשמעת כמעט הזויה. חמאס ראה ורואה בשבוי ישראלי נכס אסטרטגי שיאפשר לחמאס להשיג הישגים רבים ובראשם שחרור אסירים פלסטיניים הכלואים בישראל. במהלך הסבב הנוכחי סופג חמאס מהלומה עצומה. כל ניסיונותיו ליצור הישג צבאי משמעותי ו”תמונת נצחון” לא הצליחו. נכסיו האסטרטגיים הצבאיים – מערך הרקטות, מערכת המנהרות וכוחות העלית שלו נפגעו בצורה קשה ביותר. יש לו מאות רבות מאוד של הרוגים ופצועים. שכונות שלמות בעזה שהיו מעוזים מרכזיים של חמאס הפכו לאבק. הזעם ברחוב הערבי ובכלל זה בתוך עזה על האסון שהמיט חמאס על עזה גובר והולך. תקוותו…