Avi Melamed.

Category: Egypt.

Crisis in Yemen: Significant Milestone

March 30, 2015  Crisis in Yemen: Significant Milestone by Avi Melamed   In October 2014 I published an article entitled “Sixty Six Egyptian Fisherman, Yemen, and Instability in The Middle East” in which I said: The events in the fall of 2014 would result in increasing instability in the Middle East The developments in Yemen at that time would have serious regional ramifications Saudi Arabia and Egypt would not tolerate the deteriorating situation in Yemen threatening their strategic interests My predictions have been fully realized: On March 25th, a military coalition of the Arab Gulf states (except for Oman) plus Jordan, Morocco, and Sudan, and one non-Arab state (Pakistan), led by Saudi Arabia, launched aerial attacks on Houthi Shiite tribe…

Muslim Brotherhood at the Crossroads

December 6, 2014 by Avi Melamed The Middle East continues to constantly provide dramatic events in different areas – in Syria, Yemen, Egypt, Iraq and other places. However, I would like to divert your attention for a while from the dramatic events in those arenas and take a pause to explore some very interesting processes taking place for a significant player in the region – The Muslim Brotherhood movement. Following the outbreak of events in the Arab world known as the Arab Awakening, the Muslim Brotherhood has succeeded in attaining their primary political goal in two Arab countries. In the elections held in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood won by an overwhelming majority in the Egyptian parliament, and its candidate Mohamed…

Bewildering American Move – Operation Protective Edge

Why was US Secretary of State John Kerry’s latest cease fire proposal rejected by Egypt, Israel, the Palestinian Authority and Saudi Arabia? Another misstep on the part of the US Administration stemming from a misreading of the Middle Eastern Map, results in the US government scrambling to do damage control. As the Middle East goes through increasing turbulence, stemming from the enormous challenges the region is confronting, it is critical that the West, especially the United States, understand how to foster and cultivate stability in the face of those that are determined to foment instability.   Avi Melamed, former Israeli Senior Official on Arab Affairs and former Intelligence Official and educator, is today an Independent Middle East Strategic Intelligence Analyst,…

Muqawama, Money, Missiles

July 15, 2014 Muqawama, Money, Missiles By Avi Melamed The current round of violence between Israel and Hamas is caused by the simplest reason imaginable, yet very few are aware of it. MONEY. Let’s start with a clarification. Today, the real boss in the Gaza Strip, is a massively armed military force of about ten to fifteen thousand Palestinians known as the Ezzedeen Al-Qassam Brigades. Ezzedeen Al-Qassam is often presented as the military wing of Hamas – the rulers of the Gaza Strip. However, that definition should be revised to more accurately reflect the current reality. Today, the militia – the Ezzedeen Al-Qassam Brigades, who rule the Gaza Strip – have a political wing, named Hamas. It is the Ezzedeen…

Avi Melamed US Lecture Tour Spring 2014

A New Middle East Requires a New Understanding. Events of an historic scale are rocking the Middle East. I have spent many years of my life in the streets of the Arab world.  I have watched the Arab Awakening evolve and erupt from the inside. The Middle East in changing before our very eyes, the landscape is shifting and changing every day, and can drastically change any minute now. My upcoming US lecture tour will help you understand the present and navigate the future. Egypt, the biggest and most important Arab State, is embroiled a fierce battle over its identity. Iraq, Libya, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen are disintegrating in a bloody and violent process. Lebanon, once known as the Paris…

Was a Senior Hamas Commander Killed in the Sinai Peninsula?

******* Intelligence Bulletin   Information Date:                          August 10, 2013               Event Date:                                      August 9, 2013 Information Item:                          Senior Hamas Commander killed in Sinai Peninsula? Information Platform:                   Arab Media Source:                                              Varied Source Reliability:                           Unknown Spring:                                               Unknown Spring Reliability:                            Unknown Information Validity:                    Not confirmed Relevant information:                   On August 9, 2013 a group of Jihadist militants were killed in an air raid in the area of Al-Arish in the northern part of the Sinai Peninsula. Apparently the group was finalizing preparations to launch rocket attacks probably targeting Israeli territory. Reports on Arab media platforms – though denied by formal Egyptian spokespersons – argue that the air raid was carried out by an Israeli drone and was coordinated with the Egyptian army who is…

A True Story About a Package…and the Middle East

August 5, 2013  By Avi Melamed On the occasion of the month of Ramadan, the Islamic Jihad in Palestine (IJP) and the Palestinian organization the Popular Resistance Committees (PRC) announced the distribution of 40,000 food packages to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. In a Public Relations campaign, both organizations expressed gratitude to the Islamic Republic of Iran – known as a major sponsor of both – for funding the food packages. As part of the campaign, trucks loaded with the thousands of food packages and decorated with Iranian flags were displayed in the Gaza Strip. The packages carried the logo of the Imam Khomeini Welfare Institution also known by the name Al-Amdad. Al-Amdad is a charitable foundation under the authority…

Where is Egypt Heading?

July 14, 2013 by Avi Melamed In November 2011 I published an article entitled “The Arab Awakening: An Era of New Slogans” in which I focused on the Muslim Brotherhood movement (MB) in Egypt and the challenges it was facing now that Mubarak was gone and that their entry as a major player on the Egyptian political stage looked certain. In that article I wrote about the fact that during the political campaign, the MB political party eschewed the slogan used by the MB since their inception – “Islam is the solution” and replaced it with “We Will Do for Egypt’s Welfare.” I explained that the rationale behind that decision was that the movement understood that its historical slogan had…

Egypt: Countdown to June 30th 2013

by Avi Melamed Tension is skyrocketing in Egypt. On Sunday, June 30th, a massive demonstration is scheduled to take place in Cairo. This demonstration marks the climax of a widening public campaign launched in Egypt under the name “Tamarrud” (“Rebellion”). The Tamarrud campaign calls for the resignation of Egypt’s elected president Mohamed Morsi, the dispersing of the Egyptian Parliament and the holding of new elections. Ever since the revolution and the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak in January 2011, Egypt has been experiencing ongoing political turbulence, a deepening economic crisis, increasing disorder and escalating violence. The campaign and the expected demonstration are another link in a long chain of public expressions of discontent in Egypt. In December 2012 I published a video analyzing the situation…

Former Egyptian President Dead?

According to Arab sources Egypt’s overthrown president, Hosni Mubarak, died last night in an Egyptian jail. Reportedly, a formal announcement regarding his death is expected to be released on Sunday, June 16. Please note this has not been officially confirmed.

One Israeli Soldier Impacts the Arab World

May 21, 2013 In June 2006 the Palestinian organization, Hamas, abducted Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier. Shalit was held in captivity inside the Gaza Strip for more than five years. During this period of time the Israeli government and Hamas held long and complex negotiations regarding the terms for Shalit’s release. Throughout Gilad’s captivity, an intense ongoing campaign for his release was waged inside Israel and across the world. The campaign put pressure on the Israeli government to pay a high price, if needed, to bring Gilad Shalit back home. That demand reflects one of the most profound values of Israeli society – Israel’s moral obligation and responsibility to do whatever it may take to bring back home abducted or missing Israeli soldiers. The campaign…

Intelligence Bulletin – Are Egyptian officers being held hostage in the Gaza Strip?

******* Intelligence Bulletin   Item:                                       Egyptian officers being held hostage in the Gaza Strip? Information Date:             8/3/2013 Information:                         The wife of an Egyptian officer who was kidnapped in the Sinai Peninsula said she was advised by the President of Egypt to “be patient.”  She says that her husband, who was kidnapped together with some of his colleagues, are being held hostage in the Gaza Strip by a Jihadist Palestinian group named Jeish Al-Islam that wants to trade the kidnapped men for one of the group’s activists who is currently imprisoned in Egypt. Source:                                  Media Source Reliability:            Evaluated as reliable Information Validity:      Likely to be valid Relevant information:     Similar information provided by a single source in November 2012 indicated that 3 or 4 Egyptian police officers…

Wikistrat Next Generation Strategy Ask a Sr. Analyst Exercise

Ask A Senior Analyst – Mr. Avi Melamed   Mr. Avi Melamed Editor’s Note: Wikistrat’s Facebook followers recently engaged in a 24-hour exclusive Q&A drill with one of Wikistrat’s Senior Analysts – Mr. Avi Melamed. Mr. Avi Melamed, former Israeli Senior Official on Arab Affairs and is an independent Middle East Strategic Intelligence Analyst and lecturer specialized in the current affairs of the Arab and Muslim world, as well as their impact on Israel and the region more widely. Mr. Melamed provides intelligence analysis, briefings and tours to diplomats, Israeli and foreign policy makers, international media outlets and a wide variety of organizations as well as private clients on a range of Israeli and Middle Eastern affairs. Miguel Nunes Silva: …

Egypt’s Struggle for Consensus – Video Update

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