Avi Melamed.

Category: Avi’s Predictions & Reality.

The War in Syria Rages on Over 30,000 are Dead and the World Sits

October 4, 2012 March 21, 2011 Avi writes an article Syria: The Wall of Fear is cracking in which he discusses the ramifications of the uprising in Syria. “…Syria is neither Egypt nor Tunisia…that regime will not hesitate to oppress the uprising by all means possible…the events in Syria will have an enormous impact on Israel in the short term as well as the long term.  The turbulence in Syria will directly impact the whole structure of Iran-Syria- Hezbollah–Hamas, the radical Axis that challenges Israel.   At this point there is one major question that must be asked:  What will the position of the international community be in a situation where events in Syria quickly deteriorate into a bloody massacre in…

The Muslim Brotherhood Belly Dancing

September 22, 2012 November 8, 2011 Avi Melamed writes an article The Arab Awakening: An Era of New Slogans  “…The Arab world is in flux and the Muslim Brotherhood movement in Egypt, is now in unfamiliar territory – they are finally in the driver’s seat.   Therefore, they will have to bridge the gaps between their ideology and the need for pragmatism…I think it is quite reasonable to assume that the policy of the Muslim Brotherhood will be characterized by a permanent inner-tension that stems from their need to bridge their rigid ideology and their need for pragmatism.  And it is likely that this tension will create turbulence that will inevitably impact the region.”  September 22, 2012 an article published in L.A…

Egypt’s New Foreign Policy

July 30, 2012 February 3, 2012 Avi publishes an article Is the Israel Egypt Peace Treaty in Jeopardy?  in which he accurately foresees the foreign policy of Egypt’s new rule. Here is an excerpt from the article: “… the current Saudi-Egyptian alliance is crucial for Egypt…and Egypt is keenly aware of its dependence on Saudi support…the Saudis expect Egypt to restore their sovereignty in the Sinai Peninsula – the sooner the better – and to avoid events that could endanger the Saudi’s interests  …Egypt’s dependence on the support of the international community, and mostly the US, is deepening  …some African states are demanding that the agreement concerning the split of the water from Nile River be revised in a way…

Hezbollah Sunni Tension Rises

July 15, 2012 by Avi Melamed March 1, 2012, Avi publishes and article Is war in the Middle East inevitable? In which he outlines the increasing probability of a violent collision between Hezbollah and the Sunnis in Syria and Lebanon following the downfall of the Assad regime in Syria.  “…The majority of Syrians are Sunnis. They will never forget nor forgive Hassan Nasrallah for supporting the cold-blooded massacre of more than 8,000 (and counting) Syrians, most of whom are Sunnis. With Assad gone, Hezbollah may very well find itself confronting massively armed, enraged Sunni militants at the same time its weapons supply route is cut…Hezbollah could very well find itself fighting for its life—and the Lebanese will once again find…

Who is Nasrallah Really Afraid Of?

August 14, 2011 Avi Melamed wrote in his article The Middle East: Where Rhetoric is Rarely Reality: “…Nasrallah has been hiding underground since 2006. And he will keep on hiding.  Nasrallah knows that once he ventures out in public he will be killed.  Not by Israel, but rather by Sunni radical groups in Lebanon.“ July 3, 2012 the President of Israel declares that Nasrallah hides in his bunker because he is afraid of the Lebanese. Not because of Israel.

Nasrallah is finished in the Arab World

August 14, 2011 Avi wrote an article The Middle East:  Where Rhetoric is Rarely Reality on the impending crash of Hezbollah’s image in the Arab world.  “…The growing intervention of Iran in the internal affairs of Arab States; the public and practical support that Iran and Hezbollah provide the Assad government that brutally oppresses the uprising of the Syrian people; the increasing threats that Iran makes towards its Arab neighbors in the Gulf area; and of course the Tribunal’s report – all these events increase the feelings of resentment among Sunni Arabs towards the Shiites, and the animosity of Arab states toward Iran and its proxy Hezbollah.”  May 1, 2012 the president of Tunisia in a formal interview declares that Nasrallah…

Syria Uprising Begins

March 5, 2011 Avi publishes an article Syria: A Glimpse behind the Curtain of Fear “… The Syrians are notorious for their brutality.  When the flames touch Syria, it will not be surprising to see that the notorious Syrian reputation is not groundless.”  March 13, 2012 the Uprising in Syria began. As of October 2012 over 30,000 Syrians – most of them civilians – have been killed in the war in Syria.

Sr. Hamas Leaders Declare Hamas will take no part in a war between Israel and Iran

March 1, 2012 Avi publishes an article Is war in the Middle east Inevitable? in which he discusses the impact of the events in Syria on the radical militant Axis of Resistance. “…The Axis of Resistance is one of Iran’s major assets.  This massive military capability is a major card the Iranian regime plays when it comes to its nuclear military program.  In its talks with the West and the International Community, the regime makes the following crystal clear: if its’ vital interests are jeopardized, Iran has the ability to create an immediate, massive eruption in the region by ordering Hezbollah and Hamas to use their arsenals to attack Israel. What is critical for the West to understand is that there…

Gilad Shalit Released

May 30, 2011 Avi is interviewed about the Israeli abducted soldier, Gilad Shalit. Here is what Avi said in an interview published at Euobserver.com : “I am cautiously optimistic.  Today Hamas has to refigure its situation in the newly-shaped region. It is enjoying a warming-up of relations with Egypt and the support of the Muslim Brotherhood. But these actors may need Hamas to become more flexible so that they can gain face with the West…Post-revolutionary Egypt – which is a mediator in the Shalit talks – is likely to put pressure on Hamas to free the 24-year-old soldier in order to gain credibility for itself with the EU and US.”  October 18, 2011 Gilad Shalit was released.

Cautious Optimism

As we all eagerly await the anticipated release this Tuesday of Gilad Shalit I would like to share an article from May 2011 in which I expressed cautious optimism regarding the release of Gilad Shalit.  More important however, I would like to share with you what led me to that conclusion.  I hope the below piece helps you understand why, after more than five years, Hamas has decided “to make the deal.” May 2011 by Avi Melamed In May 2011 I was interviewed by the European online news portal www.Euobserver.com about the odds for a successful prisoner swap deal between Israel and Hamas. In this interview, I expressed cautious optimism regarding the odds of such a deal that would lead to the…

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