Avi Melamed.

A New Middle East Requires a New Understanding.

Trump’s Plan – Regional Reactions & Initial Observations

Compared to previous Western initiatives, President Trump's plan reflects a more up-to-date dialogue with the realities that exist on the ground. This in itself, it is essential because it marks the end of the paradigm that dominated the outlines offered previously by Western diplomats to end the conflict. Trump's outline - even if not fulfilled, will set the tone for future outlines.

Zoom-In: The Red Sea

"Council of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden Countries” - yet another layer in the formation of the Israeli-Egyptian-Saudi axis. This alliance strives to curb Iran and Turkey from spreading their influence and power in the Middle East and restore stability to this turbulent region.

The Eastern Mediterranean: The Civil War in Libya & Turkish-Egyptian Tensions Deepen

An update to my article on Zoom-In on the Middle East | December 15, 2019, In this short article, I would like to focus on Turkey’s involvement in the war in Libya. The Civil War in Libya began in 2011 following the ousting of Libyan Dictator, Muammar al-Gaddafi, in October of that year. Since then, various Libyan factors have been…

Iranian Retaliation: A Prelude to A Diplomatic Process?

This article is being written just hours after Iran launched a missile attack (January 8) against two military bases in Iraq. The targets were the Ein al-Assad base in western Iraq and the Harir base located some 70 miles west of the Iran-Iraq border. These bases host United States Forces, as well as International Coalition Forces that are fighting ISIS…

The Killing of Major General Qassem Soleimani | Initial Observations

The killing of Iranian Al-Quds Force Commander, Major General Qassem Soleimani by the United States (January 3rd, 2020), launched a shock wave that ripples through the Middle East. Qassem Soleimani was the Al-Quds Force commander. The Al -Quds force is an elite unit of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRG). The IRG reports directly to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Soleimani…

Zoom-In on the Middle East | December 15, 2019

The Middle East is a chain of links. Everything is connected. Understanding the links is critical to developing an accurate picture of reality. I wanted to take the opportunity to provide a contextualized snapshot of the region along with my predictions of what we can expect in the short term. I hope you find this brief overview helpful.   Lebanon…

Iran is on Fire: Mass Protests Breakout Across Iran

Rising gasoline prices in Iran have resulted in an outbreak of mass protests across Iran. Protestors are blocking roads and setting fire to public buildings, banks that are owned by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, police stations, etc. They are also burning posters and destroying statues of the leader of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, Ayatollah Khomeini, the first Supreme…

Could a Tropical Storm lead to a Public Storm in Gaza?

The expected damage caused by the storm in the Gaza Strip may be extremely severe. Hamas does not have the means and resources to repair the damages that may be caused to infrastructure, homes and agricultural crops. Therefore, a severe winter storm has the potential to be "the straw that broke the camel's back" and to develop into a mass…

Lebanon’s Despair: Initial Diagnoses | October 21

October 21, 2019 The screams and mass protests – unprecedented in volume and intensity – which erupted in Lebanon on Thursday, October 17th are screams of despair and demand for a profound change. The precise, straightforward, and exhaustive way to describe the background to the protests is that the Lebanese – young, old, Sunni, Christian, Shi’ite, Druze – are just…

Turkey’s Military Operation in Northeastern Syria | October 20 Observations

October 20, 2019    Background On October 9, 2019, Turkey’s army invaded northeastern Syria. As of now, the Turkish military operation is focused on a 70-km stretch between the city of Kobani (Ein Al-Arab) and East Tel Al-Abyad. This area has a mixed population of Kurds (the majority) and Arabs. The Turkish operation is officially referred to as “Operation Peace…

Part 3 | Alarms on Lebanese-Israeli Border: Preemptive Actions to Prevent a Wide-Scale War in The Middle East

In Part 1 of my three-part analysis, “Alarms on the Lebanese – Israel Border might be Last Wake-up Call for Western Leaders” (September 11, 2019), I explained and contextualized the events of September 1, 2019, on the Israeli Lebanese border. In Part 2,  “Alarms on the Lebanese – Israeli Border (Part 2) Iran’s Hegemonic Modus Operandi” (September 13, 2019) I…

Beyond Despair: Protests in Iraq – October 2019 Immediate Observations

Over the past week, mass protests and riots have spread throughout Iraq’s major cities. Reportedly, more than 100 protestors have been killed, and more than 6,000 have been injured.  This is not the first time such protests have broken out in Iraq – particularly in Baghdad and southern Iraq. And like before, most of the protesters are Shi’ites. However, there…

September 14 Attack on Saudi Arabia | Regional Perspectives

The September 14th Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia is a moment of truth for the West and its Middle East allies.  The West is clearly eager to avoid a direct confrontation with Iran. Some argue – at all costs. On the other hand, the Arab Gulf monarchies, Jordan, and Israel are determined to thwart Iran's hegemonic vision at all costs. Because…

Part 2 | Alarms on the Lebanese-Israeli Border Might be Last Wake Up Call for Western Leaders

In Part 1 of this Article, I explained and contextualized the events of September 1 on the Israeli Lebanese border. I ended the article by saying the following: "It is likely that yesterday’s short round between Israel and Hezbollah might be the last wake-up call for Western leaders. It should be clear that the potential for a severe, rapid escalation…

AVI'S NEW BOOK

"Inside the Middle East:
Making Sense of the Most Dangerous and Complicated Place on Earth"

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