Immediate Intelligence Bulletin
By: Avi Melamed
Information Date: 2/19/2013
Information: Tonight the Free Syrian Army Headquarters send out a formal ultimatum to Hezbollah in Lebanon demanding that Hezbollah stop shooting from Lebanon into Syria within 48 hours. According to the ultimatum, if Hezbollah fails to comply with this demand, it will result in the retaliation of the Syrian Free Army upon Hezbollah’s positions in northern Lebanon from which the rockets are being launched into Syrian territory. The Lebanese residents of the Lebanese town of Al Harmal are being warned to keep stay away from Hezbollah’s rockets and artillery positions.
Source Reliability: Evaluated as reliable
Information validity: Confirmed
Relevant information: Read my previous articles about Hezbollah’s involvement in the war in Syria:
– Pay Attention to the Battle over Al-Qusayr in Syria
– Hezbollah Launched rockets attack on Syrian city
– Most senior Hezbollah person in Syria killed
– Nassrallah is sending a message…but to whom?
Assessment: Though Free Syrian Army spokesmen have often criticized Hezbollah for its involvement in the war in Syria, this is – to the best of my knowledge – the first time such an ultimatum has been made. The ramifications of the ultimatum could be dramatic. The flames of the war in Syria up until now only have only scorched the fringes of Lebanon. If this ultimatum is carried out, the flames of war could expand into, and engulf, Lebanon, and could generate a rapid chain of events which may impact the entire region – beyond Lebanon – within a short period of time. The ultimatum of the Free Syrian Army could signal a dramatic turning point in the war in Syria.