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*Game of Pawns: The Middle East 2017 *
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Egypt’s New Foreign Policy

July 30, 2012

February 3, 2012 Avi publishes an article Is the Israel Egypt Peace Treaty in Jeopardy?  in which he accurately foresees the foreign policy of Egypt’s new rule.

Here is an excerpt from the article:

“… the current Saudi-Egyptian alliance is crucial for Egypt…and Egypt is keenly aware of its dependence on Saudi support…the Saudis expect Egypt to restore their sovereignty in the Sinai Peninsula – the sooner the better – and to avoid events that could endanger the Saudi’s interests

 Egypt’s dependence on the support of the international community, and mostly the US, is deepening

 …some African states are demanding that the agreement concerning the split of the water from Nile River be revised in a way that will decrease the quota of water Egypt receives today.  As far as Egypt is concerned the Nile water is a “red line”

 …therefore, in my view, changes or modifications to the Egypt Israeli Peace Treaty that will endanger the strategic interests of the two states is not a reasonable scenario for the foreseeable future.”

July 2012 Muhammad Morsi embarked on his first official trip as President of Egypt.  He first went to Saudi Arabia, then to Ethiopia and in between he met with the US Secretary of State.              

Avi’s analysis is corroborated by articles published by Arab analysts including:

Suleiman Jodah, What was Saudi expecting to hear from Morsi? published in Asharq Alawsat on July 15, 2012

Mamum Fandi, Egypt’s foreign policy: The oil, the water and the revolution” published in Ashark Alawsat on July 16, 2012

 

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